移动通信网 程然
在近日举行的第三季度业绩发布会上,德国电信(Deutsche Telekom)CEO Tim H?ttges 谈及的话题核心并非财报数字本身,而是埃隆·马斯克。随着 SpaceX 凭借卫星直连技术加速向美国移动市场渗透,这位掌管欧洲最大电信集团的高管明确表示,公司正以"非常严肃"的态度迎接即将到来的新竞争。对于收入六成以上依赖美国市场的德国电信而言,这场对决的分量不言而喻。
卫星搅局者逼近,商业模式之争浮现
"我们假设它一定会来……而且他们会以一种不同的商业模式进入市场。"H?ttges 在发布会上通过翻译向记者表示。在他看来,市场对 Verizon、AT&T 和德国电信三大运营商近半年的估值调整,已经折射出投资者的担忧:新进入者将在当前环境下抢占份额,进而带来更大的价格压力。值得注意的是,T-Mobile US 此前与 SpaceX 已有合作,通过 Starlink 卫星为用户提供短信补充覆盖,但马斯克显然有着更大的野心——构建独立的移动服务能力。
H?ttges 进一步剖析了 SpaceX 面临的战略选择:"单靠卫星是不够的,你始终需要地面网络覆盖……是收购一家公司,还是从零自建?市场上有三家上市公司,他必须想清楚自己要做什么。"这番表态暗示,若 SpaceX 选择收购路径,美国移动市场的格局可能迎来更剧烈的重组。目前 T-Mobile 与 Verizon、AT&T 三分天下的均衡态势,正因卫星直连技术的成熟而出现松动迹象。
【关键数据】
- 美国市场收入占比: T-Mobile US 贡献集团 Q3 净收入的 65.7%
- 集团 Q3 净收入: 311 亿欧元(349 亿美元),同比增长 7.5%
- 德国本土收入: 66 亿欧元(77 亿美元),同比增长 3.1%
- 全年 EBITDA AL 指引: 上调至 476 亿欧元(534 亿美元)
- 2027 年股份回购计划: 最高 20 亿欧元

业绩底气:用真金白银回应竞争
尽管竞争阴云压顶,德国电信交出的 Q3 成绩单依然稳健。集团净收入同比增长 7.5% 至 311 亿欧元,服务收入增长 6.1% 至 260 亿欧元。美国市场不仅贡献了集团 65.7% 的净收入,还以 81 亿欧元占到了集团 122 亿欧元调整后 EBITDA AL 的三分之二。相比之下,德国本土市场 66 亿欧元的收入体量,更加凸显了美国业务对集团的战略权重。
基于三季度的表现,德国电信同步上调了全年财务指引:调整后 EBITDA AL 从 475 亿欧元微调至 476 亿欧元,租赁后自由现金流指引从 200 亿欧元上调至 201 亿欧元。股东回报方面同样慷慨——2026 年每股分红将提高 10% 至 1.01 欧元,并计划在 2027 年回购最高 20 亿欧元的股份。这一系列动作传递的信号相当明确:管理层有信心在潜在竞争冲击下维持现金流韧性。
格局演变:卫星与地面的融合竞合
从行业视角看,SpaceX 的潜在入局折射出卫星直连(Direct-to-Cell)技术从补充覆盖走向独立运营的趋势拐点。对传统运营商而言,真正的威胁不在技术替代,而在马斯克惯用的差异化定价策略可能重塑美国移动市场的价格体系。德国本土市场 3.1% 的温和增长,也说明欧洲成熟市场难以对冲美国市场可能出现的波动。
接下来值得追踪的变量有两个:一是 SpaceX 会否通过收购现有持牌运营商快速获得频谱和网络资产;二是 T-Mobile 与 Starlink 的既有合作条款会否因竞争关系而重新谈判。无论马斯克做出何种选择,美国移动市场维持多年的三强均衡已经进入倒计时,而德国电信的反应速度,将决定这场跨界对决是冲击还是机遇。
出处:Deutsche Telekom braces for SpaceX impact in US
英文原文Elon Musk cast a long shadow over T-Mobile's German parent Deutsche Telekom's third-quarter results, as CEO Tim H?ttges contends with facing SpaceX as a new US mobile competitor in his biggest revenue market.
"We are taking this upcoming competition very seriously because we are assuming that it's coming ... and they will enter the market with a different business model," said H?ttges speaking to journalists (via a translator) during today's press conference for Q3 results.
"When you look at the multiples of Verizon, AT&T, and Telekom, and how much these companies have lost over the past six months," he said, the market is expecting that "these three competitors will generate fewer returns. ... [A] new market entrant can gain market share in this environment, and that may also lead to more price pressure."
The US (T-Mobile) accounted for 65.7% of Deutsche Telekom's ?31.1 billion (US$34.9 billion) net revenue in Q3, dwarfing the revenue contribution from its German home market, which was ?6.6 billion ($7.7 billion). The US also contributed ?8.1 billion ($9.1 billion) of the group's total ?12.2 billion ($13.7 billion) adjusted EBITDA AL (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization after leases).
"The question really is, what's better for SpaceX? Satellite alone isn't enough, you always need terrestrial coverage. … Is it better to buy a company for that or build it up from scratch? There are three listed companies, and [Musk] will have to make up his mind what he wants to do," he said.
DT net revenue increased 7.5% to ?31.1 billion ($34.9 billion) in Q3, while service revenue rose 6.1% to ?26 billion ($29.2 billion). In Germany, 3.1% revenue growth in the quarter was due to higher mobile and fixed-network service revenue.
In response to Q3 performance, DT raised full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA AL from ?47.5 billion ($53.3 billion) to ?47.6 billion ($53.4 billion). Free cash flow after leases is also notched up from ?20 billion ($22.4 billion) to ?20.1 billion ($22.5 billion). It also plans a 10% dividend payment increase, compared to 2025, to ?1.01 ($1.13) per share, and to buy back up to ?2 billion ($2.24 billion) shares in 2027.
Her first job was with Global Telephony magazine in Chicago, where she got an intro to publishing and tech reporting. After moving to the UK in 1999, she has covered telecoms tech, business and policy issues at publications including Communications Week International and Total Telecom. She was also part of Light Reading’s European editorial team from 2007 to 2013. Between stints at Light Reading, she was busy freelancing and was a regular contributor to Mobile Europe, Mobile World Live, TelcoTitans, TM Forum, and more.