移动通信网 程然
市场研究机构IDC最新发布的研究报告显示,2026年全球电信与付费电视服务支出预计将达到1.6万亿美元,同比增长2.3%。值得注意的是,这一增长的主要驱动力并非来自业务量的自然扩张,而是持续攀升的通货膨胀水平。与此同时,IDC明确将卫星直连手机(Direct-to-Device,D2D)合作伙伴关系定位为运营商下一个重要的增长机遇,认为地面网络与卫星网络的深度融合将重塑行业竞争格局。
通胀与能源成本:被动增长背后的利润压力
IDC的定期跟踪研究揭示了一个耐人寻味的现象:支出增长与运营商实际经营状况之间存在明显张力。中东和乌克兰的持续冲突预计将使能源价格在相当长时间内维持高位,直接推高了运营商的网络运营成本。为了保护利润率,运营商大概率会选择上调资费——这种“成本推动型”涨价反而会在账面上支撑市场规模的扩张,预计将持续影响2026年下半年乃至整个2027年的市场数据。
从区域维度看,美洲市场将领跑全球支出增长,其次是欧洲、中东和非洲地区(EMEA)以及亚太地区。在业务结构上,移动业务仍将是最大的细分板块,数据使用量的持续攀升以及机器对机器(M2M)应用的规模化落地,足以抵消传统语音和短信业务的持续萎缩。这一趋势与全球5G用户渗透率提升、物联网连接数快速扩张的行业大背景高度吻合。
【关键数据】
- 全球电信及付费电视服务支出: 1.6万亿美元(2026年预测)
- 同比增长率: 2.3%
- 区域增长排序: 美洲 > EMEA > 亚太
- 主要增长引擎: 移动数据用量与M2M应用
低轨卫星与D2D:天空与地面的融合竞合
在固定宽带领域,IDC预计低地球轨道(LEO)卫星宽带的日益普及将为固定数据业务带来增长支撑。不过报告同时指出,这一红利并不会普惠整个行业——其受益范围局限于SpaceX Starlink和Amazon Leo等少数拥有自有星座的卫星运营商,传统电信运营商很难直接分羹。
真正属于电信运营商的卫星机遇在于D2D。这一模式依赖电信运营商与卫星运营商之间的合作伙伴关系:运营商可以借助卫星覆盖实现服务差异化,并将网络触角延伸至地面网络无法企及的区域。对于人口密度低、基站建设经济性差的偏远地区,D2D提供了一条成本可控的覆盖补充路径。
IDC全球电信服务研究总监Kresimir Alic对此的判断颇具启发性:连接的未来不取决于选择地面还是天空,而取决于两者协同的顺畅程度。他进一步指出,那些将卫星视为自身网络延伸而非竞争对手的运营商,将更有能力提升用户忠诚度、保护存量收入,并连接“下一个十亿用户”——这一定位将D2D从单纯的技术补充提升到了战略层面。
格局演变:从管道竞争到生态协同
综合来看,这份报告勾勒出电信行业双重演进的图景:一方面,传统业务增长日益依赖通胀传导的被动式涨价,运营商的盈利模式面临结构性考验;另一方面,卫星与地面网络的融合正在打开新的价值空间。Starlink已通过与多家运营商的合作将D2D推向商用化阶段,而亚马逊Leo星座的入局将进一步加剧卫星资源端的竞争,为地面运营商提供更多合作选择。从长期看,能否在天地一体化浪潮中占据有利位置,或将成为未来几年区分运营商竞争力的关键变量。
出处:Inflation, energy costs drive telco spend
英文原文IDC tipped worldwide spending on telecoms and pay-TV services to reach $1.6 trillion this year and backed direct-to-device (D2D) partnerships as the next big growth opportunity for operators. Regular research into telecoms services showed telco and pay-TV spending would grow 2.3% year-on-year, mainly driven by growing inflation. IDC stated energy prices are expected to remain elevated for some time as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to push operator costs up. IDC stated operators would likely raise tariffs to protect margins, which would benefit to market growth across the remainder of 2026 and throughout 2027. It tipped the Americas to experience the highest growth in spending, followed by EMEA and Asia-Pacific. Mobile is expected to remain the largest segment, with growth in data usage and machine-to-machine applications more than offsetting declining spending on voice and messaging. Satellite opportunity IDC expects growth in fixed data to be supported by the rising popularity of low Earth orbit satellite broadband, but noted its impact would be limited as it only benefits select providers including SpaceX Starlink and Amazon Leo. The research company added the opportunity for telecoms within satellite comes from D2D, which relies on partnerships between the two segments. It explained these partnerships allow operators to use satellite coverage to differentiate their offers and extend coverage to areas their networks do not reach. Kresimir Alic, research director, Worldwide Telecom Services, said the future of connectivity will not be defined by the choice between ground and sky, “but by how seamlessly the two work together”. “Operators that treat satellites as an extension of their networks, rather than a rival to them, will be better placed to improve customer loyalty, protect revenues and connect the next billion users.” The post Inflation, energy costs drive telco spend appeared first on Mobile World Live .