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AST SpaceMobile 自研“黑升”火箭:20 吨可复用,2028 年底首飞遭质疑

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卫星直连手机(D2D)赛道的重要玩家 AST SpaceMobile 正在将触角伸向火箭发射领域。该公司日前宣布启动一款名为 Blacklift(黑升)的 20 吨级可复用定制火箭项目,单次发射可搭载最多 5 颗 BlueBird 低轨卫星,目标在 2028 年底实现首飞。此举意在将发射运力掌握在自己手中,消除星座部署过程中最大的不确定性来源——但这一激进的时间表已经引发分析师质疑。

与 Firefly 联手:买发动机,更要买技术

要让 Blacklift 真正离地,AST SpaceMobile 选择了与 Firefly Aerospace 深度绑定。根据双方协议,Firefly 将为前三枚 Blacklift 火箭交付 27 台 Miranda 发动机(用于大推力第一级)以及 9 台 Vira 真空版发动机(用于将载荷送入轨道的第二级)。更具战略意味的是,AST 还将获得这两款发动机的永久制造许可,并计划在美国新建一座发动机工厂实现自主生产。

这笔交易的代价不菲。许可部分 AST 需支付约 8 亿美元,其中 4 亿美元为现金,其余以 1000 万至 1400 万股股票形式支付。供应端则为前三枚火箭的发动机支付 2.5 亿美元,另在三年内支付 2.5 亿美元的工程支持服务费用。从技术成熟度看,Firefly 称 Miranda 发动机已完成超 175 次热试车、累计点火超 4200 秒,约相当于 20 次完整的一级飞行,这为其“主力发动机”的角色提供了背书。

【关键数据】

- 火箭规格: 20 吨级可复用,单次发射 5 颗 BlueBird 卫星(2028 年底目标首飞)

- 许可对价: 约 8 亿美元(4 亿美元现金 + 1000-1400 万股股票)

- 发动机订单: 27 台 Miranda + 9 台 Vira,价值 2.5 亿美元

- Miranda 测试数据: 超 175 次热试车、累计 4200 秒,约等于 20 次完整一级飞行

- 外部发射保障: 已签约覆盖超 100 颗 BlueBird,2027-2028 年部署

两年造火箭?分析师泼冷水

New Street Research 的研究报骨对 2028 年底的首飞目标直言“过于理想化”。该机构指出,火箭项目从启动到成功首飞平均需要五年时间,而 AST 期望在两年内完成。行业先例也不站在 AST 一边:蓝色起源的新格伦火箭多次延期,其 CEO Dave Limp 上周向员工透露下一次发射已推迟至 2027 年 1 月,此前 5 月该火箭在佛罗里达一次发射前测试中爆炸并严重损毁发射台;Rocket Lab 的中子号首飞已延至 2027 年;即便是 SpaceX 的星舰,也是在经历多轮延期后,才于今年 9 月首次入轨成功。

另一个隐忧在于外部发射依赖的集中度。New Street 分析师指出,蓝色起源是 AST 的重要外部发射伙伴,“这等于把大量鸡蛋放在一个篮子里”,而新格伦的进度不确定性恰好放大了自建运力的迫切性——这或许正是 Blacklift 项目上马的现实动因。

发射自主权背后的版图扩张

AST 强调,Blacklift 并非要替代外部发射服务商,公司目前已有覆盖超 100 颗 BlueBird 卫星的发射协议,部署集中在 2027 至 2028 年。董事长兼 CEO Abel Avellan 的表述更为直白:Blacklift 是“显著扩大可触达市场的跳板”,将为公司提供“规律且不受约束的轨道接入能力”以及行业内最有利的自有经济模型。业务层面,D2D 仍是基本盘——AT&T 最近完成了地面蜂窝网络与 AST 卫星网络之间的首次呼叫切换,日本合作伙伴乐天移动的 D2D 商用服务也已临近上线,而安全通信、物联网和 AI 算力被视为星座能力的延伸方向。

从产业逻辑看,卫星运营商向上游发射环节垂直整合并不新鲜,SpaceX 的星链正是凭借自有猎鹰系列火箭实现了对手难以匹敌的部署节奏和成本优势。AST 若能在 2028 年前后兑现 Blacklift,将在与 Starlink 的 D2D 竞争中补上关键一环。但在全球火箭延期成为常态、AST 自身现金消耗压力不小的前提下,两年内完成一款 20 吨级可复用火箭的首飞,无疑是一场高风险豪赌。无论结果如何,这一动向都值得通信与航天两条产业链的从业者持续追踪。


出处:AST SpaceMobile's 'Blacklift' rocket gambit draws skepticism

英文原文
Satellite Broadband Wireless News AST SpaceMobile's 'Blacklift' rocket gambit draws skepticism AST SpaceMobile will buy engines and license designs from Firefly to power a new rocket called Blacklift as it looks to wrest more control of launch capacity. AST expects launches to start in late 2028. Analysts call it an 'aspirational' target. Jeff Baumgartner , Senior Editor , Light Reading November 9, 2026 3 Min Read (Source: AST SpaceMobile) AST SpaceMobile is looking to eliminate a key source of uncertainty – getting its "BlueBird" low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites off the ground – by taking launch capacity into its own hands. AST SpaceMobile said Friday that it has sparked a project to build a 20-ton reusable, custom-built rocket called "Blacklift" that will be capable of launching up to five BlueBird satellites starting in "late 2028" – a target that analysts are already questioning. To literally get Blacklift off the ground, AST SpaceMobile said it has signed a deal with Firefly Aerospace to deliver 27 Miranda engines (for the heavy-duty first-stage) and nine "vacuum-variant" Vira engines (for the second-stage to push payloads into orbit) for the first three Blacklift rockets. AST SpaceMobile is also securing a perpetual license to manufacture the Miranda and Vira engines, with plans to produce the technology at a new engine manufacturing facility to be based somewhere in the US. Related: AT&T, Rakuten tout integration with Starlink rival AST SpaceMobile for D2D services Under the license deal, AST SpaceMobile will pay about $800 million upfront ($400 million of cash and 10 million to 14 million shares of stock). On the supply end, AST SpaceMobile said it will pay $250 million for the delivery of engines for its first three rocket launches and $250 million over a three-year period for engineering support services. In a sign to the maturity of its technology and its ability to serve as a workhorse, Firefly said the Miranda engine has performed more than 175 hot-fire tests for more than 4,200 seconds, saying that's equal to about 20 full first-stage flights. 'Regular unconstrained access to orbit' A primary strategic aim is to help AST SpaceMobile become less reliant on launch capacity that's out of the company's control, and to help the company expand beyond the direct-to-device (D2D) market by pursuing other areas such as secure communications, IoT and AI compute. On the D2D side, AT&T recently completed the first call handoff between its terrestrial cellular network and AST's satellite network, with Rakuten Mobile, AST's partner in Japan, nearing the launch of a commercial D2D service. AST SpaceMobile stressed that it will continue to use external launch providers, noting it has agreements covering more than 100 BlueBirds that are slated for deployment between 2027 and 2028. "The Blacklift rocket is the springboard to significantly expand our total addressable market, providing AST SpaceMobile with regular unconstrained access to orbit and providing for most favorable owners' economics in the industry," AST SpaceMobile Chairman and CEO Abel Avellan said in a statement. Related: Starship reaches orbit, releases 26 high-capacity 'V3' Starlink satellites Skepticism about the tight timeline In a research note (registration required), New Street Research analysts called the late 2028 target "aspirational," noting that it typically takes an average of five years from the start of a program to a successful first flight while "AST wants to launch in 2." They point out that "schedules slip," noting that timelines for Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has been subject to multiple delays, while the first launch of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket has been delayed until sometime in 2027 . Starship, SpaceX's heavy-duty rocket also has been hit with multiple delays, and achieved orbit for the first time in September . The New Street analysts also point out that Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin represents a "big" external launch partner for AST SpaceMobile, "which puts a lot of eggs in this basket." That thought comes amid reports that Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp told employees last Wednesday that the next flight for the New Glenn will be pushed to January 2027 . New Glenn suffered a setback in May when it exploded during a prelaunch test in Florida and badly damaged the launchpad. About the Author Jeff Baumgartner Senior Editor, Light Reading Jeff Baumgartner is a Senior Editor for Light Reading and is responsible for the day-to-day news coverage and analysis of the cable and video sectors. Follow him on X, LinkedIn and Bluesky . Baumgartner also served as Site Editor for Light Reading Cable from 2007-2013. In between his two stints at Light Reading, he led tech coverage for Multichannel News and was a regular contributor to Broadcasting + Cable. Baumgartner was named to the 2018 class of the Cable TV Pioneers. See more from Jeff Baumgartner Want more Light Reading stories in your Google search results? Add Us Now Subscribe and receive the latest news from the industry. Join 62,000+ members. Yes it's completely free. Sign me up Want more Light Reading stories in your Google search results? OFC Conference and Exhibition Experience OFC. Where the industry goes to learn, showcase technologies, forge partnerships and close deals. 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