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全美45项数据中心公投39项获通过,AI基建遭遇民意阻击战

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美国数据中心产业正遭遇一场前所未有的民意阻击战。在近日举行的美国中期选举中,覆盖 10 个州、40 个地方选区的约 45 项涉及数据中心项目及建设的公投措施陆续揭晓结果:除北达科他州哈伍德一项支持开发的提案外,其余已统计的措施几乎全部倒向限制数据中心一方——或直接禁止、设限,或否决支持开发的动议。这一结果与 AI 基础设施投资的热潮形成鲜明反差,也为全球算力扩张战略敲响了警钟。

俄亥俄成主战场:政治与算力的交织

45 项公投措施中有 21 项集中在俄亥俄州,该州同时选出了近二十年来首位民主党州长 Amy Acton。Acton 在竞选中明确支持对新数据中心项目实施有条件暂停(moratorium),她击败了共和党对手 Vivek Ramaswamy。参议院层面,Sherrod Brown 时隔两年重返国会,他在竞选期间公开反对向大型数据中心项目提供巨额税收优惠,并猛烈批评了对手 John Husted 在任内对数据中心补贴的支持记录。州一级权力结构的更迭,意味着俄亥俄这个传统上对数据中心友好的州,政策风向可能发生实质转变。

事实上,地方层面的抵触情绪早有累积。在本次选举之前,已有多个州暂停项目审批或通过暂停令,地方社区对噪音、电力消耗、水资源占用以及地价影响的担忧持续发酵。New Street Research 的数据显示,仅 2026 年上半年,因地方反对而被阻止或推迟的美国数据中心项目金额已接近 2000 亿美元,而同期全美 AI 资本开支总规模在 6900 亿至 7250 亿美元之间——相当于接近三成的计划投资被民意“卡”在了落地环节。

【关键数据】

- 公投限制措施战况: 45 项中 39 项获胜或领先,仅 1 项亲开发措施通过(限制派压倒性胜利)

- 上半年受阻项目金额: 约 1980 亿美元(接近 2000 亿美元)

- 2026 年 AI 资本开支: 6900-7250 亿美元

- 公众反对率: 42%(2025 年 8 月)→ 75%(2026 年 8 月)

- 俄亥俄州公投数量: 21 项,占全国近半

2026年美国数据中心公投分布

跨党派的反对浪潮

更值得产业界警惕的是,这种反对并非某一政治阵营的单一情绪。New Street Research 引用的追踪民调显示,反对数据中心建设的人口比例在一年内从 42% 飙升至 75%。党派拆分来看,69% 的民主党人、54% 的共和党人和 53% 的独立选民持反对态度,且无论城市、郊区还是农村地区,反对率均超过 60%。对 AI 本身的态度同样在恶化:73% 的美国人对 AI 使用增加感到担忧,高于 2023 年的 68%;39% 的受访者认为 AI 对社会产生负面影响,而持正面评价者仅 11%。在受调查的 25 个国家中,没有一个国家的主流 AI 情绪是“兴奋”。

分析师 David Barden 指出,数据中心需求本质上是需求拉动而非供给推动——消费者真正想要的是数据中心的产出。这意味着与电力行业的境遇类似,抑制数据中心开发最终会推高终端用户成本,同时可能为存量数据中心持有者带来潜在收益。在他看来,能否妥善处理成本与收益之间艰难的平衡,将成为区分行业领导者与跟随者的分水岭。

绕开地面的算力豪赌

当说服美国人在自家后院接纳数据中心变得愈发困难时,一条极端路线开始获得关注。SpaceX CEO Elon Musk 在选举期间借势重提其轨道数据中心构想——将算力基础设施直接搬入太空。尽管 Musk 本人在本次中期选举中投入超过 4.45 亿美元试图保住共和党多数席位却未能如愿,其公司总部所在的德州政治版图也出现松动,但轨道数据中心的讨论本身折射出一种行业焦虑:当陆地选址的政治成本持续攀升,产业资本开始认真评估非常规方案的技术与经济可行性。

从更宏观的视角看,这场公投潮标志着一个结构性转折:算力基础设施的扩张不再只是资本和技术问题,而正在成为需要直面社区、选民与监管的政治议题。对计划在美国市场布局数据中心的中国及全球云厂商、设备供应商而言,选址风险、审批周期与社区关系的权重将显著上升。未来 12 到 18 个月内,各州立法机构是否跟进出台 statewide 层面的限制性法案,以及 AI 应用端的实际价值能否扭转公众观感,将决定这股逆流是暂时波动还是长期趋势。


出处:Data centers lose at ballot box

英文原文
Voters expressed their feelings on data centers on Tuesday via ballot measures restricting their development. That rejection comes as public opposition to data centers and fear of AI continues to rise, notes New Street Research. Voters across ten states and 40 localities had the opportunity to approve or reject an estimated 45 ballot measures affecting data center projects and construction. Of those, all but one measure was successful in restricting data centers (either by directly placing bans or limits or through rejecting pro-development measures), with a handful still unsettled as of this writing. The single pro-development measure was in Harwood, North Dakota, where a proposal to add a review of industrial projects, including data centers, failed, according to data from [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Data_center-related_ballot_measures,_2026). Notably, 21 of all data center-related measures appeared on the ballot in Ohio, where voters also elected Amy Acton as their first Democratic governor in nearly two decades, and sent Sherrod Brown back to the US Senate after he lost his seat in 2024. Acton, who beat Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, supports a conditional moratorium on new data center projects. Brown, who defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Husted, has opposed large tax breaks for data center projects and criticized Husted's record of support for such projects during the campaign. Opposition to data centers has been increasing in sentiment and policy since before Tuesday's election, with some states pausing projects and passing moratoriums, for example. According to an [analysis](https://www.newstreetresearch.com/research/data-centers-now-a-ballot-box-issue/attachment/) (subscription required) released today from New Street Research, lost revenue from local opposition to data centers in the first half of 2026 neared $200 billion. "AI capex is running at $690-725B in 2026, but local opposition blocked or delayed ~$198B of U.S. data center projects in the first half of 2026 alone. On Nov. 3, data center development restrictions won or led in 39 of 45 local votes," states a note from New Street Research analyst David Barden. That situation doesn't seem likely to shift in favor of data centers soon. According to a tracking poll cited by New Street Research, public opposition to data centers has increased from 42% in August 2025 to 75% in August 2026. Public polling also shows that opposition is bipartisan, with 69% of Democrats opposed, 54% of Republicans and 53% of Independents, with opposition topping 60% "in cities, suburbs, and rural areas alike," noted New Street's analysis. "73% of Americans are worried about increased use of AI (up from 68% in 2023), and 39% say AI is having a negative impact on society vs. 11% a positive one. This gap is widening. Zero of 25 countries surveyed show 'excitement' as the dominant AI sentiment," writes New Street's Barden. "Data center demand is pull-based, not push. Consumers want what comes out of the data center. Like power industry issues to date, throttling data center development leads to higher prices for end-users and revenue (potentially) for data center incumbents. Navigating the thorny reality of cost-benefit trade-offs will distinguish leaders in the industry," writes Barden. Alternatively, if convincing Americans to want data centers in their backyards seems too challenging at this point, you could go the Elon Musk route. The SpaceX CEO, who unsuccessfully [spent over $445 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/11/elon-musks-445m-spending-spree-tops-2026-midterm-donor-rankings/) trying to secure Republican majorities in Tuesday's elections, and whose company is now headquartered in a [state suddenly known as Blexas](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/11/texas-blue-democrats-win/689278/), used the occasion to re-up his [plan for orbital data centers](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/musk-s-massive-space-based-data-center-super-scale-or-sheer-folly-).
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