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SpaceX联手高通建地面蜂窝网:Starlink Mobile 2027年全美商用

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本周全球通信行业三条重磅消息接连落地:SpaceX 与高通签署多年期协议,将采用后者的 Dragonwing 蜂窝基础设施技术,为 2027 年在美国推出全国性 Starlink Mobile 网络铺路;英国国家网络安全中心(NCSC)警告,随着 AI 让网络攻击更快、更精密,未来两年英国将面临来自俄罗斯、中国等国家行为体的攻击浪潮;诺基亚则预测到 2035 年,AI 将驱动全球近一半的网络流量。三条新闻看似独立,实则共同勾勒出 AI 时代网络基础设施的重构图景。

SpaceX 的“接地气”豪赌:数万基站对标主流运营商

SpaceX 此番与高通的合作内容相当具体:Starlink Mobile 将部署高通 Massive MIMO 无线单元,同时配套射频设备、基带单元和软件,支撑大规模蜂窝基站建设。双方预计在多年协议期内部署数万个站点。高通技术规划与边缘解决方案部门执行副总裁 Durga Malladi 向媒体表示,这一安装规模足以与主流运营商比肩,并强调 SpaceX 的投入“非常坚定且认真”。

对高通而言,这笔交易的分量同样不容小觑。在爱立信、诺基亚长期主导宏基站市场的格局下,Dragonwing 基础设施业务获得 Space#X 这样的重量级客户,意味着其在电信设备领域的横向扩张取得了实质性突破。值得注意的是,双方还将在 AI 原生 6G 基础设施上展开合作,这为高通在下一代标准竞争中的卡位提供了想象空间。

FDM CCS Insight 首席分析师 Luke Pearce 的评价则相对审慎。他指出,该协议与业界预期一致——“卫星直连手机(D2D)服务需要传统地面网络作为补充”。但他同时将整个项目形容为“一项艰巨的工程”:数万个站点、额外频谱,以及最多 15,000 颗 V2 卫星组成的星座,其中大部分尚未建成,且高度依赖 Starship 火箭的发射成功率。 Pearce 直言,最终服务“必须具备足够的竞争力,才能匹配这一投资规模”。

不过,一旦在美国跑通,这一模式的辐射效应可能远超单一市场。Pearce 分析认为,该模式“可以为星链实现国际化扩张”,也可能被其他卫星运营商或规模较小的移动网络运营商效仿,同时为加速 Open RAN 和 6G 的普及创造机会。换言之,这不仅是 SpaceX 与美国三大运营商的对垒,更可能重塑全球“卫星+地面”混合组网的商业范式。

【关键数据】

- Starlink Mobile 商用时间: 2027 年在美国推出全国性服务

- 基站部署规模: 多年期协议预计部署数万个基站站点

- V2 卫星星座: 最多 15,000 颗,大部分尚待建设

网络流量的 AI 变局:上行链路成为新瓶颈

诺基亚本周发布的《全球网络流量报告》从需求侧印证了基础设施变革的必然性。报告预测,到 2035 年,AI 将占全球网络流量的 44%;届时月度网络流量相比当前水平将接近翻两番。细分来看,由机器人、联网汽车等应用产生的“物理 AI”流量将在这一周期内增长 105 倍,智能体(Agentic AI)流量增幅更达 160 倍。此外,边缘和城域核心网预计将承载 36% 的 AI 原生流量。

真正值得运营商警惕的是流量结构的变化。诺基亚移动基础设施系统芯片副总裁 Derek Urbaniak 指出,传统网络建设建立在“人们消费的数据远多于创造的数据”这一假设之上,而 AI“正在挑战这一根本假设”。摄像头、机器人、智能体和物理 AI 大量回传数据,正在把压力从下行链路转向此前长期被忽视的上行链路。这对未来 RAN 容量规划提出了根本性的重构要求——而 SpaceX 与高通此时押注地面网络,恰逢其时。

AI 双刃剑:英国预警攻击浪潮

网络基础设施扩张的另一面,是安全威胁的同步升级。英国 NCSC 在 2026 年度回顾中警告,未来两年英国很可能面临来自俄罗斯、中国及其他国家行为体升级的网络攻击,原因在于 AI、自动化和算力的进步让攻击者更高效地利用漏洞、锁定目标。该机构评估,到 2028 年,国家行为体将常态化地在网络行动中使用 AI 以服务地缘政治目标,且 AI 驱动的恶意软件极有可能在 2028 年前被用于针对英国关键基础设施的勒索攻击。

NCSC 负责人 Richard Horne 的表态颇具警示意味。本周欧洲多家食品企业(包括英国供应商)的制冷控制系统遭攻击,他将该事件形容为更大威胁的“山脚”,批评许多组织长期“贪便宜用技术”——系统陈旧、升级拖延、监控不足。但他同时强调,AI 也可以成为防御端的“力量倍增器”:“同样这项能够强化对手的技术,也能够强化我们自身。”

格局演变:混合组网与安全重建并行

综合来看,本周三条新闻指向同一个方向:AI 正在同时改写网络的供给侧与威胁侧。SpaceX 与高通的合作预示着卫星运营商下场建设地面网络的“天地一体”竞争时代到来,传统设备商和运营商的护城河面临新变量;诺基亚的流量预测则提示,网络容量规划的上行化、边缘化将驱动新一轮 RAN 与传输网投资;而 NCSC 的警告提醒整个行业,规模扩张必须与安全能力同步。从长期看,能够在容量重构与安全重建两条战线上同时卡位的厂商,将在 6G 前夜占据更有利的位置。


出处:The Friday File: SpaceX; UK cyberattacks; Nokia

英文原文
Mobile World Live ( MWL ) brings you our top three picks of the week as SpaceX tapped Qualcomm to power its US mobile network, experts warned the UK could face a growing wave of AI-powered cyberattacks and Nokia forecast AI to drive almost half of global network traffic by 2035. SpaceX taps Qualcomm to power Starlink Mobile in US What happened: SpaceX struck a deal with Qualcomm to use its Dragonwing Cellular Infrastructure technology as it prepares to launch a nationwide Starlink Mobile network in the US in 2027. Why it matters: Starlink Mobile will deploy Qualcomm Massive MIMO radio units, alongside radio equipment, baseband units and software, to support large-scale cellular base station roll-out. The companies expect tens of thousands of sites to be deployed over the multi-year agreement. Qualcomm said the technology will bring advanced antenna capabilities to Starlink Mobile’s terrestrial network, improving coverage, capacity and spectral efficiency. The partners will also collaborate on AI-native 6G infrastructure. Durga Malladi, EVP and GM, Technology Planning, Edge Solutions and Data Centre at Qualcomm, told Bloomberg the planned installation numbers would rival those of major operators, adding that SpaceX was “very committed and serious”. Luke Pearce, principal analyst at FDM CCS Insight, said the agreement was consistent with expectations that “a conventional terrestrial network will need to complement satellite direct-to-device (D2D) services”. He described the project as “a huge undertaking”, pointing to the requirement for tens of thousands of sites, additional spectrum and a planned constellation of up to 15,000 V2 satellites, “much of which is yet to be built and depends on Starship’s success”. Pearce warned the resulting service “will need to be competitive enough to justify the scale of investment”. Furthermore, success in the US could have wider implications. He said the model “could scale internationally for Starlink” and be adopted by other satellite operators or smaller MNOs, while creating opportunities to accelerate open RAN and 6G adoption. SpaceX taps Qualcomm to power Starlink Mobile in US Russia, China likely to ramp up UK cyberattacks What happened: The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) warned the UK is likely to face an increased threat of cyberattacks from Russia, China and other state actors over the next two years, as AI makes operations faster and more sophisticated. Why it matters: In its 2026 annual review, the agency warned that advances in AI , automation and computing power are helping threat actors exploit vulnerabilities, target victims and operate more efficiently. It cautioned nation states were likely to routinely use AI in cyber operations to pursue geopolitical objectives by 2028. The NCSC also assessed it was highly likely AI-powered malware would be used in a ransomware attack on UK critical national infrastructure before 2028, adding growing reliance on space-based technologies would also create opportunities for attackers over the next decade. The warning comes as food businesses across Europe, including UK suppliers, suffered cyberattacks on refrigeration controls this week. While the NCSC told The Guardian the UK impact was minimal, chief Richard Horne called the incident the “foothills” of a wider threat. He warned weaknesses could be exploited at speed, saying organisations had “got away with tech on the cheap” for too long through outdated systems, delayed upgrades and inadequate monitoring. He added that AI could become “a force multiplier” for hostile actors, while also highlighting its potential in cyber defence. “The very same technology that can strengthen the hand of our adversaries can also strengthen our own.” Russia, China likely to ramp up UK cyberattacks Nokia tips AI to generate almost half of traffic by 2035 What happened: Nokia forecast AI will account for 44% of global network traffic by 2035, as autonomous agents, robots and connected vehicles drive demand for greater capacity and faster connections. Why it matters: The vendor’s Global Network Traffic Report predicted monthly network traffic will nearly quadruple by 2035 compared to current levels. Physical AI traffic, generated by applications including robots and connected vehicles, is expected to grow 105-fold over the period, while agentic AI traffic will increase 160-fold. In addition, the changing workload will also put greater pressure on uplinks. The vendor also expects edge and metro core networks to handle 36% of AI-native traffic by 2035. Derek Urbaniak, VP of System-on-Chip at Nokia Mobile Infrastructure, said networks had traditionally been built around the assumption that “people consume far more data than they create”. AI, he added, “starts to challenge that fundamental assumption”. He highlighted the growing role of cameras, robots, agents and physical AI in driving uplink demand, arguing the shift has “fundamental implications for how we think about future RAN capacit
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