通信,拉近世界的距离!
您的位置:首页 >资讯 >业界新闻 >查看资讯

CCS Insight发布百项预测:SpaceX或收购运营商,苹果首代6G iPhone登场

移动通信网 程然

一年一度的行业"算命大会"再度拉开帷幕。调研机构 CCS Insight 本周在伦敦举办闭门活动,发布了 2027 年及以后的 100 项行业预测。作为行业日历上的固定节目,这家机构过去 13 年间保持了 49% 的预测命中率,几乎一半的"预言"最终成为现实。今年预测涵盖 AI、卫星通信、终端、运营商和 6G 五大热门领域,其中不乏 SpaceX 收购电信运营商、苹果推出首批 6G iPhone 等大胆判断。

AI 代理泛滥,OpenAI 前景承压

在 AI 领域,CCS Insight 分析师 Ian Fogg 给出了一个看似惊人、实则"门槛不高"的预测:到 2030 年,普通家庭中的 AI 代理数量将超过家庭成员数量。目前平均每个家庭仅 2.64 人,却已拥有 7.46 台具备代理能力的设备——包括智能手机、智能家居设备和各类 App。按此推算,这一预测几乎不存在悬念,更何况许多设备将同时运行多个代理。高通公司 Ben Timmons 在炉边谈话中甚至认为这一数字被低估,他预计两年内用户将放心让 AI 代理访问自己的金融数据,"他们会被彻底说服"。

与 AI 代理的高歌猛进形成鲜明对比的是,生成式 AI 先驱 OpenAI 被预测将在 2028 年前经历债务重组,CEO Sam Altman 离任。分析师认为,该公司将难以说服投资者其拥有可持续的商业模式,而不断攀升的成本、数据中心的电力与水资源消耗争议,以及支撑 AI 服务所需的高昂芯片价格,都将成为压在其身上的重担。此外,尽管英伟达本周密集公布多项 AI-RAN 运营商合作,分析师判断 T-Mobile US 将凭借本月初完成的首个 AI-RAN 语音通话,成为首家部署该技术的运营商。

【关键数据】

- 预测命中率: 13年间 49%(近半数预测成真)

- 家庭AI设备密度: 户均 2.64 人对应 7.46 台代理能力设备

- 6G终端渗透率: 2030年售出智能手机中 10% 支持 6G

- 智能隐形眼镜获批: 预计 2031 年前通过主要市场监管审批

SpaceX 喜忧参半,欧洲酝酿反制

卫星通信领域呈现出对马斯克旗下 SpaceX/Starlink 的两极化判断。一方面,大胆预测认为到 2030 年,Starlink 迄今最大的运营商客户 Veon 集团将被 SpaceX 收购;另一方面,也有预测担忧 SpaceX 在 2027 年欧盟频谱分配中颗粒无收,同年欧盟将支持建设第三个卫星生态体系——围绕 Elveo 和 SES 打造,与 Starlink 和 AST SpaceMobile 三足鼎立。后一项预测并非空穴来风:本周多个欧洲主流运营商集团已宣布联手打造马斯克方案的替代品,"欧洲星座"的产业基础正在成形。

苹果改弦更张,德国市场迎整合

6G 领域最出人意料的预测当属苹果的"逆袭"。这家在历代移动网络升级中始终慢半拍的公司——初代 iPhone 甚至不支持 3G,多数用户只能依赖 Wi-Fi——被预测将在首批 6G 商用网络上线时同步推出 6G iPhone。转机来自苹果自研基带芯片的落地:掌握调制解调器话语权后,苹果不再需要看高通的脸色决定网络支持节奏。其他预测还包括:所有首批 6G 市场的运营商都将先行部署 5G-A;2030 年售出的智能手机中 10% 支持 6G。行业普遍将 2029 年视为 6G 商用的最早时间点。

运营商层面,继西班牙、英国和法国的高调并购之后,德国被预测将成为下一个整合的欧洲市场——2027 年该国第四大运营商 1&1 将被同业收购,Telefonica 被视为最可能的买家。同时,总部位于罗马尼亚、已在西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙和意大利市场崭露头角的挑战者 Digi Communications,被预测将在 2028 年前再进入三个欧洲市场。

智能眼镜遭遇反弹,终端周期拉长

终端市场预测则颇具黑色幽默色彩。Meta 智能版 Ray-Ban Wayfarer 眼镜连月来遭遇强烈抵制后,分析师预计 2027 年普通版 Ray-Ban Wayfarer 太阳镜销量将大幅下滑——人们担心被要求摘下眼镜自证清白,却分不清对方戴的只是普通太阳镜。监管层面,2028 年欧盟有望强制要求可穿戴 AI 设备配备"摄像头使用中"指示灯;更具科幻色彩的是,一款智能隐形眼镜被预测将在 2031 年前获得主要市场的监管批准,让人不禁联想到《黑镜》剧情。此外,换机周期拉长和循环经济模式兴起,叠加行业成本高企,150 美元以下低端智能手机市场将在 2028 年前持续承压。

整体来看,这份预测描绘的 2027-2031 年图景中,AI 代理将渗透进日常生活的毛细血管,卫星互联网竞争走向地缘化博弈,而 6G 时代的产业权力结构可能出现微妙重排——自研基带的苹果、自建星座的欧洲、自组网络的运营商,都在试图从巨头手中夺回主动权。这些判断能否兑现,未来两年内即可初步验证。


出处:Predictions go bold: SpaceX buys operator, Apple leads 6G devices, Meta hurts sunglasses

英文原文
Analyst firm FDM CCS Insight gazed into its crystal ball to offer up its big predictions for 2027 and beyond, and didn’t hold back on its soothsaying with some big-name headline forecasts. At an invite-only event in London this week, the company launched its annual set of 100 industry predictions. The shindig has become a recognised date on the industry calendar, and with good reason – after 13 years of peering into the future, FDM CCS Insight claims almost half (49%) of its predictions have come true. 100 predictions is a lot, so Mobile World Live has picked its 15 favourites and categorised them in the five hottest areas right now: AI (naturally), Satellite, Devices, Operators and 6G. AI FDM CCS Insight’s Ian Fogg asserted there will be more AI agents than people in the average household by 2030 , noting that the average household has 2.64 people, and yet there are already 7.46 agent-capable devices (smartphone operating systems, smart home devices and smartphone apps) in these households. “It doesn’t take a lot for this prediction to come true,” noted Fogg. “Plus, many devices will run several agents.” In fact, speaking in a fireside chat at the event, Qualcomm’s Ben Timmons reckoned these numbers are undersold. “It’s going to be pretty quick for the agent to become central to everything you do in your personal and worklife. In two years’ time I predict people will be letting their agents have access to financial data too – they will be converted,” he stated. The future doesn’t seem particularly bright for Generative AI pioneer OpenAI, with a prediction that OpenAI has a debt restructuring and CEO Sam Altman is shown the door by 2028 . It’s forecast that the company will fail to convince investors it has a viable commercial model, while struggling with escalating costs, concerns about data centres’ electricity and water use, and the high price of silicon needed to power AI services. It’s been a busy week for AI-RAN, with chief proponent Nvidia unveiling a bevy of operator trial deals. But it’s US carrier T-Mobile US set to be the first operator to deploy AI radio access network technology according to the analysts, following an AI-RAN voice call first earlier this month. Satellite There’s mixed feelings on the future of Elon Musk’s SpaceX/Starlink operation. On the one hand, there is a bold prediction that by 2030 Veon Group (Starlink’s biggest operator customer to date) will be bought by SpaceX , but there are also major concerns: one forecast fears SpaceX fails to win any mobile satellite spectrum in the EU’s allocation in 2027 and in the same year the EU backs a third satellite ecosystem to rival Starlink and AST SpaceMobile (built around Elveo and SES). This latter prediction is fuelled by the big news this week that several major European operator groups are teaming on an alternative to Musk’s offering. 6G The standout prediction in this category is a real surprise: Apple, typically a laggard when it comes to supporting brand new generations of mobile networks (the first iPhone didn’t even connect to 3G, with most users relying on Wi-Fi for fast browsing speeds), will have a 6G iPhone available alongside the first 6G commercial networks . This change in tack will be thanks to Apple now producing its own cellular modem. Elsewhere, analysts predicted operators in all initial 6G markets will launch 5G-Advanced first , and one in 10 smartphones sold in 2030 will support 6G (the earliest target date for commercial 6G launch is generally accepted as 2029). Operators Following recent high-profile mergers in Spain, the UK and France, FDM CCS Insight expects Germany to be the next European market to see consolidation. Specifically, in 2027, German operator 1&1 is acquired by one of its rivals – and Telefonica is tipped to be the most likely buyer of the country’s fourth player. Meanwhile, Romania-based Digi Communications – already making a name for itself as one of Europe’s fastest-rising challenger brands with a presence in Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Italy – is tipped to enter three new European markets by 2028 . Devices There are some quirky forecasts for the device market. Following months of significant backlash against people wearing Meta’s smart version of the Ray-Ban Wayfarers, in 2027 sales of regular Ray-Ban Wayfarer sunglasses will plummet as people become fearful of others demanding they take them off, without realising they are just regular sunglasses. And regulatory action in this area will ramp up: in 2028, the analysts predict that ‘camera in use’ indicators will become mandatory on wearable AI devices sold in the EU . And in a nod to at least one Black Mirror episode, a smart contact lens is predicted to receive regulatory approval in a major market by 2031 . Finally, the trend toward longer device life cycles and a more circular approach to smartphone ownership (fuelled in part by mounting industry costs) spells bad news for the low-cost smartphone market. By 2028, the sub-$150
微信扫描分享本文到朋友圈
扫码关注5G通信官方公众号,免费领取以下5G精品资料
5G通信公众号
  • 1、回复“YD5GAI”免费领取《中国移动:5G网络AI应用典型场景技术解决方案白皮书》
  • 2、回复“5G6G”免费领取《5G_6G毫米波测试技术白皮书-2022_03-21》
  • 3、回复“YD6G”免费领取《中国移动:6G至简无线接入网白皮书》
  • 4、回复“LTBPS”免费领取《《中国联通5G终端白皮书》》
  • 5、回复“ZGDX”免费领取《中国电信5GNTN技术白皮书》
  • 6、回复“TXSB”免费领取《通信设备安装工程施工工艺图解》
  • 7、回复“YDSL”免费领取《中国移动算力并网白皮书》
  • 8、回复“5GX3”免费领取《R1623501-g605G的系统架构1》
  • 本周热点本月热点
    通信人才网

    最热通信招聘

    更多