美国 PC 出货量二季度微增 1%,Omdia 预计全年下滑 10.7%

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市场研究机构 Omdia 最新发布的数据显示,2026 年第二季度美国 PC 出货量同比增长 1.0%,在连续多个季度的疲软走势中难得地重回正增长区间。不过,这份亮眼的季度成绩单并未改变机构对全年的谨慎判断——Omdia 同时预计,2026 年全年美国 PC 市场出货量将下滑 10.7%。一个季度的微增与全年两位数的跌幅预期并存,勾勒出当前美国 PC 市场复杂而矛盾的运行图景。

季度回暖:需求结构性反弹而非趋势反转

从驱动因素看,二季度的正增长更多来自结构性因素的叠加,而非终端需求的全面复苏。一方面,企业端 Windows 10 支持终止后的换机余波仍在延续,商用市场保持了相对稳定的采购节奏;另一方面,搭载 AI 能力的新一代 PC 在零售端的渗透率持续攀升,部分抵消了消费市场的疲软。此外,渠道库存经过数个季度的消化已回归健康水位,补库存行为也为当季出货数据提供了一定支撑。

需要关注的是,1.0% 的增幅在全球 PC 市场的历史波动区间中属于极弱增长,几乎可以视为“持平”。在缺乏持续性强刺激的前提下,这样的季度表现难以支撑市场趋势反转的判断。Omdia 在报告中明确指出,季节性因素与一次性订单在当季数据中占比不小,若剔除相关影响,底层需求的修复程度依然有限。

【关键数据】

- 2Q26 美国PC出货量增速: 1.0%

- 2026 全年美国 PC 市场预测: 下滑 10.7%

- 季度增速与全年预期落差: 约 11.7 个百分点

- AI PC 渗透率: 持续攀升,成为核心增量来源

全年承压:10.7% 跌幅背后的三重压力

Omdia 对全年 10.7% 的下滑预期,反映出机构对下半年市场走势的明显担忧。首先,宏观经济层面,美国消费者信心指数持续在低位徘徊,高利率环境下居民耐用消费品支出意愿受到抑制,消费级 PC 首当其冲。其次,2025 年前后因操作系统迭代和政策补贴(如关税预期引发的前置采购)带来的需求透支效应,正在 2026 年集中显现——大量购买行为被提前释放,直接抽空了今年的潜在需求池。

第三个压力来自替代效应。随着大屏智能手机和平板电脑在轻度办公场景中的覆盖能力增强,以及云桌面方案的逐步普及,传统 PC 的不可替代性正在被削弱。对于以更换周期长达 5-7 年为特征的成熟市场而言,任何一次替代效应的边际扩大,都会在出货数据上被显著放大。

AI PC 能否扭转颓势

从产业视角看,AI PC 被视为扭转市场颓势的最大变量。各家 OEM 厂商与芯片供应商正加速推动 NPU 成为标配,本地大模型推理、智能办公助手等应用场景的逐步落地,有望在未来 12-18 个月内催生新一轮换机潮。但这一逻辑的兑现速度取决于 AI 应用的实际体验提升幅度——若端侧 AI 未能给用户带来可感知的价值,换机动力仍将停留在企业合规驱动的被动层面。

综合来看,Omdia 的数据描绘的是一幅“短期企稳、全年承压”的市场图景。二季度的 1% 微增说明底部支撑正在形成,但 10.7% 的全年跌幅预期提示,真正的复苏尚未到来。对于产业链上下游厂商而言,2026 年下半年的关键词仍是“谨慎”——控制库存、聚焦商用与 AI 细分增量,或许是穿越这段调整期最稳妥的策略。


出处:US PC shipments grew 1.0% in 2Q26, while full-year market forecast to decline 10.7% – Omdia

英文原文
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short-lived, with Omdia forecasting US PC shipments to decline 10.7% for the full year and 18.4% in the second half of 2026. #pressrelease September 9, 2026 2 Min Read [](http://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://www.lightreading.com/smartphones-devices/us-pc-shipments-grew-1-0-in-2q26-while-full-year-market-forecast-to-decline-10-7-omdia)[](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https://www.lightreading.com/smartphones-devices/us-pc-shipments-grew-1-0-in-2q26-while-full-year-market-forecast-to-decline-10-7-omdia)[](http://www.twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://www.lightreading.com/smartphones-devices/us-pc-shipments-grew-1-0-in-2q26-while-full-year-market-forecast-to-decline-10-7-omdia)[](https://bsky.app/intent/compose?text=US%20PC%20shipments%20grew%201.0%25%20in%202Q26%2C%20while%20full-year%20market%20forecast%20to%20decline%2010.7%25%20%E2%80%93%20Omdia%20-%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lightreading.com%2Fsmartphones-devices%2Fus-pc-shipments-grew-1-0-in-2q26-while-full-year-market-forecast-to-decline-10-7-omdia)[](mailto:?subject=US%20PC%20shipments%20grew%201.0%%20in%202Q26,%20while%20full-year%20market%20forecast%20to%20decline%2010.7%%20%E2%80%93%20Omdia&body=I%20thought%20the%20following%20from%20Light%20Reading%20might%20interest%20you.%0D%0A%0D%0A%20US%20PC%20shipments%20grew%201.0%25%20in%202Q26%2C%20while%20full-year%20market%20forecast%20to%20decline%2010.7%25%20%E2%80%93%20Omdia%0D%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.lightreading.com%2Fsmartphones-devices%2Fus-pc-shipments-grew-1-0-in-2q26-while-full-year-market-forecast-to-decline-10-7-omdia) New Omdia research shows that US PC shipments (excluding tablets) grew 1.0% year-over-year (YoY) in 2Q26 to 18.8 million units, returning to growth following a 7.0% decline in 1Q26. Growth was driven by demand being brought forward as retailers and channel partners secured inventory ahead of price increases resulting from memory and storage supply constraints. Average PC sell-in prices in the US exceeded $1,000 for the first time, up 12.0% YoY. However, the return to growth is expected to be short-lived, with Omdia forecasting US PC shipments to decline 10.7% for the full year and 18.4% in the second half of 2026. ##### Component constraints influence market dynamics in 2Q26 The US PC market faced sustained supply pressure in 2Q26 – primarily from DRAM and NAND constraints contributing to higher PC prices. PC OEMs maximized available volumes, while retailers and channel partners increased inventory to mitigate anticipated cost increases and secure supply. Looking further ahead, Omdia forecasts US PC shipments to decline a further 4.9% in 2027. ##### Premiumization and component costs drive double-digit ASP growth The same trend was visible across the US channel, with Best Buy, CDW, and Insight Enterprises each reporting that higher computing selling prices helped offset softer unit volumes in their most recent quarters. Rising component cost had the greatest impact on entry-level systems. Shipments of PCs priced below $699 dropped 6.5%, while shipments of PCs priced above $1,500 increased 36.8%, reflecting a shift toward premium products. Growth in AI PCs also contributed to higher ASPs, with AI PCs accounting for 48.3% of US PC shipments during the quarter and forecast to exceed 50% for the first time in 3Q26. ASPs are forecast to continue rising in early 2027. However, higher prices are not expected to offset declining shipment volumes, with total US PC market revenue projected to decline 6.0% in 2027. Read the full press release [here](https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/sep/us-pc-shipments-grew-1point0percent-in-2q26-while-full-year-market-forecast-to-decline-10point7-percent). 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