移动通信网 程然
法国咨询机构Novaspace近日发布《国防与安全卫星通信》第二版报告,给出了一组颇具冲击力的预测数字:到2035年,全球商业国防卫星通信服务收入将突破226亿美元,国防领域的卫星通信带宽需求将超过7.5 Tbps。推动这一增长的核心引擎,正是以星链为代表的下一代非静止轨道(NGSO)星座在军事领域的加速渗透。在机动性、态势感知和网络韧性成为各国军队优先事项的当下,卫星通信正从传统通信保障手段,跃升为现代军事体系架构的基础性组成部分。
多轨道架构重塑军用通信格局
报告中最值得关注的数据变化,发生在轨道结构层面。NGSO卫星服务收入预计到2035年达到213亿美元,以34%的年复合增长率高速扩张,几乎贡献了整个国防商业卫星通信市场的增量部分。与之形成鲜明对比的是GEO(静止轨道)业务:收入将从2025年的23亿美元逐步下滑至2035年的13亿美元。
但收入下滑并不等于战略价值下降。Novaspace预测,GEO容量需求在同一时期将增长三倍,这表明GEO卫星在混合多轨道网络中仍承担着不可替代的角色——大容量、广覆盖和成熟抗干扰技术的定位,使其与低轨星座形成互补而非单纯的替代关系。Novaspace高级经理Santiago Perez指出,分布式卫星通信架构的普及,正在显著提升军事卫星通信面对中断、干扰和动能打击时的韧性,多轨道连接策略正成为各国国防用户的主流选择。
【关键数据】
- 2035年商业国防卫星通信收入: 超过226亿美元
- 全球国防卫星通信需求: 2035年超过7.5 Tbps
- NGSO服务收入: 2035年达213亿美元,年复合增长率34%
- GEO收入变化: 从2025年23亿美元降至2035年13亿美元,容量需求增长三倍
- 美国市场占比: 全球需求50%以上、收入占比48%
中美双极格局:需求占据全球八成
从区域分布看,国防卫星通信市场呈现高度集中的双极格局。美国预计到2035年仍是全球最大的国防卫星通信市场,占据全球需求的一半以上和收入的48%。中国紧随其后,约占全球需求和收入的三成。两国合计吸纳全球约八成的国防卫星通信资源,这一格局与全球军事现代化投入的整体走向高度吻合。
美国方面,SpaceX星链的军用版本Starshield已获得多份政府合同,军方对低轨通信容量的采购规模持续攀升;欧洲则在推进IRIS?主权星座计划,试图摆脱对美系商业星座的依赖;而中国在千帆星座、国网星座等低轨组网项目上的推进速度,同样在快速转化为国防通信能力。卫星通信已经深度嵌入大国军事现代化的核心议程。
采购逻辑之变:从租容量到建体系
Perez在报告中强调,当前发生的并非卫星容量需求的简单转移,而是军事通信的根本性演进。多轨道连接正在成为现代国防网络的基础,并将长期影响采购模式、作战方式与战略规划。这一判断背后,是国防客户采购逻辑的实质性变化——从传统的“按需租用商业转发器容量”,转向构建GEO、MEO、LEO多层协同的体系化通信架构。
对商业卫星运营商而言,这意味着国防市场正成为继消费者宽带之后最重要的增长极,具备抗干扰、低时延和快速部署能力的NGSO系统将持续获得溢价。从长期看,随着各国将网络韧性纳入国防采购的核心评估维度,多轨道混合架构的竞争将延伸至频率协调、地面段建设和国际标准制定等多个层面,围绕天基通信资源的产业博弈才刚刚开始。
出处:Commercial Defense Satcom Service Revenues to Surpass $22.6B by 2035
英文原文Paris, France | September 2026 — Novaspace’s [_Satellite Communications for Defense and Security, 2nd Edition_](https://nova.space/hub/product/satellite-communications-for-defense-and-security/)highlights a defense Satcom market poised for rapid growth. By 2035, commercial satellite service revenues are projected to exceed $22.6 billion, while global defense Satcom demand is forecast to surpass 7.5 Tbps, driven by the adoption of next-generation non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) constellations.
As defense organizations prioritize mobility, situational awareness, and network resilience, satellite communications are becoming a core element of modern military architectures, driving investment in secure, resilient connectivity for mission-critical operations.
“The growing adoption of distributed satcom architectures is rapidly enhancing military satcom resilience against disruption, jamming, and kinetic attacks,” notes Santiago Perez, Senior Manager at Novaspace. “As defense users increasingly adopt multi-orbit connectivity strategies, NGSO constellations will play a pivotal role in delivering the capacity, low latency, and resilience required for future military operations.”
NGSO service revenues are expected to reach $21.3 billion by 2035, supported by a 34% CAGR. Although GEO revenues will decline from $2.3 billion in 2025 to $1.3 billion in 2035, GEO capacity demand is forecast to triple, underscoring its strategic importance within hybrid, multi-orbit networks.
The United States is expected to remain the largest defense Satcom market through 2035, accounting for more than 50% of global demand and 48% of revenues. China is projected to follow with around 30% of global demand and revenues, reinforcing the central role of satellite communications in the military modernization efforts of the world’s leading powers.
“What we’re witnessing is not simply a shift in satellite capacity demand. This is a fundamental evolution in military communications,” adds Perez. “Multi-orbit connectivity is becoming the foundation of modern defense networks and will shape procurement, operations, and strategic planning for years to come.”
**About the Report**
Novaspace’s [_Satellite Communications for Defense and Security_](https://nova.space/hub/product/satellite-communications-for-defense-and-security/), 2nd Edition delivers a comprehensive analysis of the military Satcom market, examining key industry trends and the evolving balance between supply and demand for broadband satellite communications. The report provides detailed qualitative and quantitative insights by region, military force, orbit, and frequency band, alongside profiles of the leading commercial satellite systems supporting defense and security operations.
**About Novaspace**
Novaspace is the leading independent consulting and market intelligence firm dedicated to the global space sector. Leveraging over 40 years of industry expertise, the company supports public and private stakeholders across the entire space value chain with high-impact, data-driven advisory services, combining management and technology consulting, market intelligence, and executive summits to help organizations navigate complexity, manage risk, and capture growth opportunities.
Trusted by more than 1,200 clients in over 60 countries, Novaspace operates globally with offices in Bangalore, Brussels, London, Montreal, Munich, Paris, S?o Paulo, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Toulouse, and Washington, D.C.
Visit[nova.space](https://nova.space/)for more.
**Media Enquiries:**Olivia Garnier | Communications Lead |[olivia.garnier@nova.space](mailto:olivia.garnier@nova.space)
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