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IEEE实测AI伪造论文:免费大模型十几条提示词造出“以假乱真”论文

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一篇从头到尾没有真实实验支撑的“学术论文”,需要多少成本才能造出来?一位科技记者给出的答案是:免费版大模型,加上二十几条提示词。这场由 IEEE Access 编辑团队配合完成的“攻防演练”,将学术出版界愈演愈烈的 AI 灌水问题摆到了台面上。数据显示,2025 年已有约 57% 的公开发表论文可检测出大语言模型影响的痕迹,而真正主动披露 AI 使用的论文凤毛麟角。这场实验的核心追问只有一个:在同行评审不堪重负的当下,出版商的防线还守得住吗?

“氛围研究”:一场业余水平的论文伪造实验

实验设计借鉴了程序员群体中的“vibe coding”概念——用自然语言提示词让 AI 生成代码,作者将其称为“vibe-research”。实验规则刻意收紧:只能使用免费版 ChatGPT(GPT-5.3/5.2 Mini)和 Gemini(3 Flash),不得直接编辑模型输出,不得求助提示词工程专家,作者署名也使用真实身份以避免伪造机构信息引发怀疑。

选题落在作者近二十年前攻读博士时的研究方向——光孤子,即传播过程中形状保持不变的光脉冲。第一轮尝试的结果相当寒酸:缺乏真实研究数据支撑时,模型输出单薄得可笑,往往连四页纸都凑不满。但随着提示词技巧的熟练,局面迅速改观。作者将论文拆解为摘要、引言、方法等模块逐一攻破,当一个模型拒绝继续时,切换到另一个模型并请求“假设性地”描述下一步,往往就能绕过拒绝。约一打提示词产出一篇结构完整的论文,再一打提示词生成图表、图注、参考文献,并按 IEEE Access 的格式要求排版成稿。

【关键数据】

- 2025年疑似受LLM影响的论文占比: 57%,2023年仅为12%

- Nature Communications审稿意见完全由AI生成占比: 超过12%(2025年)

- AI使用披露率: 每40篇存在统计证据的论文仅1篇披露

- 全球年伪造论文产量估计: 数十万篇

- 本次实验伪造论文所需提示词: 约24条,全程使用免费模型

学术记录的信任危机

作者通读成稿后的评价值得警惕:科学叙述听起来可信,找不到典型的“AI 腔”破绽,甚至一度萌生回到学术界把模型提出的实验真正做出来的念头。需要说明的是,检测出 AI 影响并不等于论文必然是垃圾——合理使用 AI 辅助写作与批量制造虚假研究是两回事。但披露机制的严重失灵放大了问题的隐蔽性,按披露比例推算,现有统计很可能大幅低估了 LLM 的实际渗透程度。

IEEE 研究诚信经理 Amanda Sulicz 的判断相当严峻:受威胁的不只是科学记录本身,而是作为整体的科学事业——数百年间建立起来的科学流程信任基础,正在被批量 AI 内容侵蚀。而同行评审体系本就依赖志愿审稿人勉力支撑,简单叠加检测负担并不可行。这场实验的第二阶段还提出了更尖锐的问题:当 AI 系统不只代写论文,而是直接执行底层研究时,学术出版的审核逻辑将面临怎样的重构?

出版体系的重构压力

这场攻防演练的意义不在于证明一篇假论文能否登堂入室,而在于揭示防御体系与攻击成本之间的巨大不对称:业余玩家用免费工具即可批量产出看似合格的手稿,而甄别成本却要由已经超载的学术共同体承担。AI 自动化正在同时改变科学发现与学术出版两个环节,出版商、审稿人与资助机构需要的不只是更灵敏的检测器,而是涵盖数据溯源、实验可复现性验证与披露激励的系统性方案。从长期看,谁先建立可信的“研究过程证明”机制,谁就能在这场信任重建中占据主动。


出处:I Used AI to Fake a Scientific Paper. Here’s What Happened

英文原文
Science has a spam problem. And the spam filter is getting clogged up. According to all reports, academic publishing is drowning in what has come to be called AI slop: low-quality, mass-produced content generated with AI. By 2025, an estimated 57 percent of all published academic articles exhibited detectable evidence of large language model (LLM) influence, a massive jump from 12 percent in 2023. What’s more, over 12 percent of Nature Communications reviews were found to be completely AI-generated in 2025. Given that for every 40 papers showing statistical evidence of AI usage in 2025, only one formally disclosed it , these figures likely grossly underestimate LLM involvement today. Of course, evidence of AI use doesn’t necessarily mean a paper is slop. But some estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of fake, often AI-generated, publications are now produced annually. “It’s not just the [scientific] record under threat, it’s science as a whole,” warns Amanda Sulicz , IEEE’s research-integrity manager. “AI slop is completely eroding trust in science and every scientific process that we’ve worked for centuries to create.” Yet statistics and statements claiming that the problem is big—perhaps even existential for science—don’t really get the message across. Just how easy is it to use AI to create a convincing but completely fake paper? And without adding even more to the burden on stretched peer reviewers, who do this work on a volunteer basis, do publishers have the tools to keep AI slop out of the scientific record? Borrowing from the idea of “vibe coding,” in which programmers use natural-language prompts to generate code, I decided to “vibe-research” a made-up paper by prompting LLMs to generate hypotheses, code, and text with minimal human input. Then I asked Jenny Mahoney , managing editor of the multidisciplinary and open-access journal IEEE Access , if we could war-game an attempt to sneak my AI-generated monstrosity past her journal’s defenses. She and IEEE kindly agreed. The experiment would become a two-part test. First, whether someone with no special AI expertise could use off-the-shelf AI tools to generate a convincing paper describing research that had never been performed, and do it well enough to fool a publisher’s defenses. Then I would raise the stakes: What happens when more advanced AI systems don’t just write the paper but conduct underlying research? Along the way, the experiment became a window into how AI automation is transforming scientific discovery and forcing stakeholders to rethink the entire academic publishing system. Round 1: Creating the Forgery To give me a chance at creating a convincing fake, I gave myself permission to prompt multiple times (within reason). But to make the fight fair, I couldn’t access the most advanced paid versions of LLMs—only free ChatGPT (at the time, GPT-5.3/5.2 Mini) and Gemini (3 Flash). Moreover, I could not directly edit any output, nor ask for outside help from expert AI-prompt engineers. This needed to be an amateur effort, with the paper generated as much as possible by the LLMs alone. I assumed that using fake author names and affiliations would immediately raise a red flag, and I didn’t want to drag the names of established academics into the experiment, so the best bet was to name myself as the sole author. That choice limited me to subjects in which I had some academic experience. So I chose my Ph.D. topic from nearly two decades ago: optical solitons, which are individual light pulses that propagate without any change to their shape. My first attempt—“Can you vibe-research me an original paper in optical solitons?”—left a lot to be desired. Though Gemini was happy to do the task (unlike ChatGPT, which was more forceful in not generating synthetic data or studies), the result was underwhelming. And it highlighted a recurring problem during the process: Without any real research to work with, the output was laughably thin, with the LLMs often struggling to fill four pages. However, as I became more adept at prompting the models, they loosened up and became more characteristically loquacious. I broke the paper down into its constituent parts—abstract, introduction, methods, and so on—and tackled them one by one. If one LLM refused to go any further, switching to the other and asking what the next step would look like “hypothetically” would often do the trick. After a dozen or so prompts, I had a realistic-looking paper. A dozen or so more prompts generated and tidied up the figures and captions, produced references and citations, and converted the paper into IEEE Access ’s required style. At this point, I read the full paper carefully. To me, it looked pretty good. The science sounded convincing. I even had visions of returning to academia to conduct in real life the experiments that the LLMs had proposed. What’s more, I couldn’t see any obvious telltale “AI-isms” that would immediately be flagged. For example, the LLMs didn’t produc
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