移动通信网 程然
过去一周,全球科技与通信行业再度上演密集博弈。T-Mobile US 与 Verizon 两位 CEO 先后在财报电话会上否认与 SpaceX 达成 MVNO 合作的可能;AI 明星公司 Anthropic 正式提交纳斯达克上市申请,披露了爆发式营收增长与巨额亏损并存的财务图景;而 Amazon 斥资 115 亿美元收购 Globalstar 的交易获得 FCC 批准,为其卫星直连手机业务扫清关键障碍。三件事看似独立,实则共同指向一个主题:巨头们正在新赛道上加紧卡位,竞争的时间窗口正在收窄。
卫星直连之争:运营商口风强硬,市场却已用脚投票
围绕 SpaceX 进军美国移动市场的传闻持续发酵。T-Mobile US CEO Srini Gopalan 在三季度业绩会上明确表态:“我看不出与 SpaceX 之间有任何 MVNO 的空间”,并补充说转售合作“完全是另一回事”。此前 Verizon CEO Dan Schulman 也在财报会上低估了 Starlink 带来的威胁,他给出的测算相当具体:要建成一张能与现有地面网络抗衡的竞争性网络,需要部署 6.5 万至 8 万个宏站,耗时七到八年,投入规模在 3000 亿至 5000 亿美元之间。“没有魔法棒,没有秘方,也没有捷径。”他的这番表述,与 AT&T CEO John Stankey 上周质疑 SpaceX 威胁的立场形成呼应。
不过资本市场的反应更为诚实。据路透社报道,在 SpaceX 基站接入计划曝光后,AT&T 股价下跌 5.6%,T-Mobile 下挫 5%,Verizon 也损失 1.6%。公开信息显示,SpaceX 正为其 Starlink Mobile 业务寻求接入至少 8 万个美国基站,目标在 2028 年初正式推出手机直连(D2D)服务。Bernstein 分析师指出:“竞争冲击可能还要数年才会真正显现,但仅是这种预期本身,叠加每一次频谱和基础设施动作,就足以持续压制板块情绪。”运营商高管的集体降温言论,某种程度上正是在对抗这种市场焦虑。
Anthropic 冲刺上市:增长神话与亏损现实并存
另一边,Anthropic 向美国证券交易委员会提交注册文件,计划以代码 ANT 在纳斯达克全球精选市场挂牌。招股书披露的数据颇具冲击力:2026 年上半年营收达到 163 亿美元,而上年同期仅为 12 亿美元,2025 年全年也不过 46 亿美元。但光鲜的营收曲线背后,是 807 亿美元的净亏损,其中 24 亿美元营收成本的大头来自算力与基础设施投入。这家 AI 巨头用真金白银证明了行业共识:大模型的规模扩张,本质上是一场资本密集型竞赛。
值得玩味的是 Anthropic 在文件中的自我警示。公司明确表示“不预期营收将继续以可比速度增长,也无法保证增长会持续”,并将爆发式增长归因于早期采用动态、AI 市场尚处萌芽阶段以及客户初期快速扩张,同时警告随着市场成熟,增长“可能无法持续,且可能比预期更快、更大幅度地下滑”。投资机构 Catapult 创始人 Jonathan Tower 的评价颇为冷静:“非凡的营收增长并不必然转化为非凡的投资回报”,投资者容易“把 AI 机会的量级与参与者的盈利能力混为一谈”。这番话对当前蜂拥而至的 AI 概念投资,无疑是一剂清醒剂。
【关键数据】
- Anthropic 2026 上半年营收: 163 亿美元(上年同期仅 12 亿美元,全年 2025 为 46 亿美元)
- Anthropic 净亏损: 807 亿美元
- Amazon 收购 Globalstar 金额: 115 亿美元,含约 25MHz 移动卫星频谱
- SpaceX 目标接入基站数: 至少 8 万个,D2D 服务计划 2028 年初上线
- Verizon 测算建网投入: 3000 亿至 5000 亿美元
频谱卡位战:Amazon 拿下 Globalstar 的深层逻辑
FCC 太空局本周批准了 Amazon 对 Globalstar 的收购,交易核心资产包括约 25MHz 移动卫星频谱以及 C-3 系统——一个由 48 颗卫星组成、用于扩容的星座。交易同时保留了 Apple 与 Globalstar 的既有合作,Amazon 承诺为现有及未来 iPhone 和 Apple Watch 持续提供卫星连接支持。监管方认为,该交易有望改善偏远地区覆盖、强化应急通信并扩展工业与企业数据服务。
行业分析普遍将此解读为对 SpaceX 的直接回应。CCS Insight 首席分析师 Luke Pearce 此前评价称,这笔交易让 Amazon“在向智能手机提供卫星服务方面获得一条重大捷径”,并“强化了其对抗 Starlink 的地位”。LS Telecom 频谱政策顾问 Richard Haas 的观点更是一针见血:Amazon 收购 Globalstar“首先是为了频谱资产”,在监管机构迟迟不分配新增 MSS 频谱的环境下,企业只能通过收购存量资产来追赶马斯克的卫星版图。卫星通信赛道的竞争,本质上已经演变为频谱资源的争夺战。
格局前瞻:三线并进的产业变局
将三件事放在同一坐标系下观察,产业逻辑清晰可见。卫星直连手机从概念走向商用的时间表正在收敛:SpaceX 盯上 2028 年初,Amazon 借收购提前拿到入场券,运营商则试图用地面网络的规模壁垒拖延对手的进攻节奏。而 AI 层面的巨额算力投入,又与通信基础设施的云化、智能化深度绑定,Anthropic 上市后的资本表现将直接影响整个算力产业链的景气度。对运营商而言,真正的考验或许不在于口头上如何回应威胁,而在于能否在窗口关闭之前,把网络、频谱与生态的优势转化为用户可感知的体验差异。2028 年之前,这场三方博弈的每一步落子,都值得持续追踪。
出处:The Friday File: US operators; Anthropic; Amazon
英文原文Mobile World Live ( MWL ) brings you our top three picks of the week as a pair of US operators shrugged off SpaceX’s mobile threat, Anthropic’s IPO filing revealed mounting revenues and costs, and Amazon secured FCC clearance for its $11.5 billion acquisition of Globalstar. T-Mobile US CEO quashes SpaceX MVNO talk What happened: T-Mobile US CEO Srini Gopalan and Verizon CEO Dan Schulman ruled out MVNO agreements with SpaceX in their respective earnings calls, as the latter played down the threat from Elon Musk’s Starlink as it prepares to enter the US mobile market. Why it matters: “I see no room for an MVNO with SpaceX,” Gopalan said on the company’s Q3 results call, adding a resale arrangement would be “a wholly different thing”. Earlier in the week, Schulman argued building of a competing terrestrial network would require 65,000 to 80,000 macro sites and estimated costs of $300 billion to $500 billion over seven or eight years. “There’s no magic wand, there’s no secret sauce, there’s no shortcut,” he said. Last week, AT&T CEO John Stankey similarly questioned the threat posed by SpaceX, emphasising the time and scale of construction required to match incumbent networks. The comments follow reports SpaceX is seeking access to at least 80,000 US cell sites as it develops Starlink Mobile, targeting an early 2028 launch for its direct-to-device (D2D) service. According to Reuters , AT&T shares fell 5.6%, Verizon lost 1.6% and T-Mobile dropped 5% in the wake of reports on SpaceX’s cell-site plans. Bernstein analysts told the publication: “The competitive impact may still be years away, but anticipation alone, reinforced by each successive spectrum and infrastructure move, is likely to remain an overhang on sector sentiment.” T-Mobile US CEO quashes SpaceX MVNO talk Anthropic files for IPO What happened: Anthropic filed to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT, disclosing a sharp rise in revenue alongside substantial infrastructure commitments and a large net loss. Why it matters: In its registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the AI player revealed it generated $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, compared with $1.2 billion a year earlier and $4.6 billion for the whole of 2025. However, it reported a net loss of $80.7 billion. Compute and infrastructure costs accounted for most of its $2.4 billion cost of revenue. Jonathan Tower, founder and managing partner of Catapult, told Fortune : “Extraordinary revenue growth doesn’t necessarily trend into extra extraordinary investment returns.” He warned investors risk “confusing the magnitude of the AI opportunity with the profitability of its participants”. Anthropic warned in its filing: “We do not expect our revenue will continue to grow at comparable rates, and we cannot assure you that it will continue to grow at all.” It attributed its explosive growth to “early-stage adoption dynamics, the nascency of the AI market, and rapid initial customer expansion,” noting that it “may not be sustainable over time, and may decline significantly and more rapidly than we anticipate” as the market matures. Anthropic files for IPO, reveals revenue surge US clears $11.5B Amazon-Globalstar deal What happened: Amazon’s proposed $11.5 billion acquisition of Globalstar cleared a key regulatory hurdle after the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved the deal, advancing the company’s plans to add D2D services to its Leo satellite business. Why it matters: The FCC Space Bureau approved Amazon’s acquisition of around 25MHz of Globalstar’s mobile satellite spectrum and authorised access to its C-3 system , a 48-satellite constellation set to increase network capacity. The deal also preserves Apple’s pact with on Globalstar for satellite features, with Amazon agreeing to maintain connectivity for current and future iPhones and Apple Watches. The regulator explained the transaction could improve coverage in underserved areas, strengthen emergency communications and expand industrial and enterprise data services. Earlier this year, FDM CCS Insight principal analyst Luke Pearce said the deal gives Amazon “a major shortcut in providing satellite services to smartphones” and “strengthens its position against SpaceX’s Starlink”. Richard Haas, spectrum policy consultant at LS Telecom, argued Amazon was acquiring Globalstar “for its spectrum assets first and foremost”, noting “companies aren’t willing to wait until regulators start assigning more MSS spectrum” and were buying assets to catch up with Elon Musk’s satellite venture. US clears $11.5B Amazon-Globalstar deal The post The Friday File: US operators; Anthropic; Amazon appeared first on Mobile World Live .