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市场研究机构 Omdia 最新数据显示，今年第三季度全球智能手机出货量同比下滑 20%，仅为 2.547 亿部，创下十多年来同期的最低纪录。这份数据与 IDC 此前发布的报告基本吻合——IDC 统计的出货量为 2.553 亿部，跌幅 22%。两大机构的数据相互印证，指向同一个结论：在零部件成本上涨、新兴市场购买力疲软与渠道库存收紧的多重压力下，全球智能手机市场正经历近年来最严峻的一次下行周期。
成本压力与购买力困境的双重挤压
Omdia 指出，设备价格持续上涨与元器件短缺不断削弱新兴市场的消费需求。分销商和零售商同样态度谨慎——更高的设备成本抬升了流动资金需求，迫使渠道压缩库存、放缓补货节奏。首席分析师 Sanyam Chaurasia 表示，那些曾经驱动全球出货增长的地区，如今正面临最大的可负担性压力。
区域数据印证了这一判断。非洲市场出货量下跌 39%，成为跌幅最大的区域，部分厂商已被迫在“保利润”与“保销量”之间选择前者。这标志着过去十余年依靠新兴市场增量红利的行业逻辑正在失效，中低端机型的价格天花板正在下移而非上移。
【关键数据】
- 全球Q3出货量: 2.547亿部，同比下滑20%（十多年来同期最低）
- 非洲区域跌幅: 39%，全球最大区域跌幅
- 三星出货量: 5780万部，同比下降5%，保持全球第一
- 苹果出货量: 5650万部，基本持平
- 小米出货量: 3070万部，同比下跌29%
- 全年出货预测: 下降约12%
头部格局分化：三星守擂，中国厂商承压
厂商层面的表现呈现明显分化。三星以 5780万部的出货量继续稳居全球第一，尽管较去年同期下降 5%，但入门级 Galaxy A 系列和 Z8 折叠屏产品线的组合有效对冲了整体市场的收缩，说明覆盖多价位段的产品矩阵在下行周期中更具韧性。
苹果的表现则相对平稳，出货量与上年基本持平，为 5650万部。Omdia 特别提到，iPhone 18 的发布节奏实际上延长了上一代机型的销售周期，而旧款机型在北美和中国市场持续热销，为苹果提供了缓冲。这一策略与成本上涨环境下消费者换机周期拉长的趋势不谋而合。
中国厂商则遭遇更大冲击。小米出货量下跌 29% 至 3070万部，此前其已在中国和印度市场调整产品定价；OPPO 与 vivo 的跌幅更为剧烈，分别达到 39% 和 33%，两家厂商均通过提价来覆盖不断上涨的元器件成本。涨价保利润的直接代价便是出货规模的快速收缩，这在中国品牌赖以起家的高性价比细分市场尤为致命。
存储短缺阴影：行业低谷或将延续至2027年
展望后市，Omdia 预测全年智能手机出货量将下降约 12%。更值得警惕的是，高带宽内存（HBM）与传统存储芯片的持续短缺，可能使硬件成本在 2027 年之前都维持在高位。存储价格上涨的根源在于 AI 数据中心对内存产能的挤占，这一结构性因素短期内难以缓解，意味着智能手机的物料成本压力并非周期性波动，而可能是长期性的行业重构。
对整个产业链而言，这场下行周期正在重塑竞争规则：靠规模换增长的模式让位于利润导向的经营策略，产品定价逻辑从“渗透率优先”转向“毛利优先”。厂商能否在高端化与新兴市场可负担性之间找到新的平衡点，将决定下一轮换机潮到来时的市场座次。
出处：Smartphone shipments drop 20%
英文原文Global smartphone shipments fell 20% year-on-year to 254.7 million units in Q3, the lowest volume for the period in more than a decade, Omdia reported. Omdia noted rising device costs and component shortages continued to weaken consumer demand in emerging markets. Distributors and retailers also remained cautious about restocking as higher device costs raised working capital needs and limited inventories. Principal analyst Sanyam Chaurasia said regions which once drove shipment growth faced the greatest pressure on affordability. Shipments in Africa fell 39%, the largest regional decline, forcing vendors to prioritise margins over volumes. Samsung remained the largest vendor, shipping 57.8 million smartphones globally, though this was 5% less than in Q3 2025. Its entry-level Galaxy A series and the Z8 foldable range are credited as contributing to Samsung’s performance. Apple’s shipments were flat at 56.5 million units: Omdia noted the vendor’s iPhone 18 launch schedule effectively extended the run of its previous model, which it stated continued to ship well in North America and China. Chinese vendors experienced larger declines. Xiaomi’s shipments fell 29% to 30.7 million units as it adjusted prices in China and India. Oppo and Vivo’s shipments dropped 39% and 33%, respectively as they raised prices to cover higher component costs. Omdia forecast full-year shipments would decrease by around 12%, while persistent shortages of high-bandwidth and conventional memory could keep hardware costs high well into 2027. The data is broadly in line with IDC figures showing shipments dropped 22% to 255.3 million. The post Smartphone shipments drop 20% appeared first on Mobile World Live .
