移动通信网 程然
全球电信行业的"减员增效"叙事正在接受严峻拷问。MTN Consulting最新报告显示，2026年第二季度全球电信就业同比下滑2.1%，延续了自2016年以来的持续收缩态势。报告覆盖的145家运营商雇员总数约420万人，较上年同期的430万人进一步缩减。然而耐人寻味的是，裁员并未带来人力成本下降——行业人均劳工成本同比上涨6.8%，达到约62,500美元，总人力开支不降反升。这一数据组合，为整个行业正在热烈推进的AI自动化转型蒙上了一层阴影。
裁员与AI：找不到的因果链条
报告作者、MTN Consulting首席分析师Matt Walker指出，本季度2.1%的就业降幅已超过过去十年1.7%的年均水平，行业瘦身步伐正在加快。但研究团队在数据中寻找裁员与经营改善之间的直接关联时，结果并不理想。在72家规模较大的运营商样本中，员工人数变化与过去四个季度EBIT利润率之间，没有发现可测量的关系。
更具说服力的是两家典型运营商的对照。Telefónica以19.3%的员工削减幅度位列全行业最大规模裁员，但该公司在此期间几乎没有被标记出AI自动化相关的新闻；相反，获得最多AI报道关注的SK Telecom，员工数仅减少6.2%。换言之，裁员最狠的企业未必是AI用得最多的企业，AI声量最高的企业也未必裁员最狠。所谓"AI替代人力"的行业叙事，至少在目前的数据中难以成立。
【关键数据】
- 全球电信就业降幅: 2026年Q2同比下滑2.1%，高于十年均值1.7%
- 人均劳工成本: 约62,500美元，同比上涨6.8%（总人力开支不降反升）
- 收入与成本"双达标"运营商: 仅BSNL、Iliad、MTN集团，不足全球市场2%
- 裁员改善经营概率: 2011年以来的事件研究显示，裁员运营商仅57%-67%的案例跑赢未裁员同业
- 区域分化: 亚洲就业+0.6%，欧洲-3.4%，中东非洲-2.8%，美洲-1.2%
乐观问卷与冷酷财报的落差
这份报告的结论，与业界广为流传的AI收益叙事形成了鲜明反差。Nvidia在其第四年度《电信业AI现状》报告中宣称，约65%的受访者表示AI带来了超过5%的收入增长或年度成本削减。但MTN Consulting基于经审计财务数据的测算给出了另一幅图景：全球运营商中，年收入增长超过5%的不足20%，运营成本削减超过5%的同样不足20%。能够同时实现两者——收入与成本双向达标——的仅有印度BSNL、法国Iliad和南非MTN集团三家，合计不足全球市场的2%。
两个数据集之间的巨大落差，指向一个值得整个行业警觉的问题：问卷调查反映的可能更多是行业情绪和期望，而非经过审计的真实经营结果。MTN Consulting直言，这一差距表明AI收益叙事中存在明显的乐观偏差。对于正在大规模投资AI基础设施的运营商而言，这无异于一记提醒——技术投入的回报周期，可能远比厂商宣传材料所描绘的要漫长。
区域分化与裁员的真实回报
从区域维度看，亚洲是本季度唯一实现就业增长的地区，员工数环比增加0.6%，主要得益于KDDI等运营商的逆势招聘。欧洲则以3.4%的降幅成为就业收缩最严重的区域，其中Telefónica的19.3%大幅裁员是重要推手。中东和非洲地区就业下降2.8%，美洲下降1.2%。区域间的分化表明，电信业的人力策略已不再由单一全球逻辑驱动，而是深受各市场收入压力、监管环境和转型节奏的差异化影响。
那么裁员到底值不值？MTN Consulting追溯至2011年的事件研究提供了一些参照：实施裁员的运营商中，约57%至67%的案例在后续经营表现上跑赢了未裁员的同业。这个数字说明裁员与经营改善之间存在一定的正向概率，但远非确定性结论——仍有三分之一的裁员企业未能获得相应回报。减员本身不是万灵药，关键在于裁撤之后资源如何重新配置。
回归财务基本面的审视
报告最后给出的建议相当直白：运营商、设备商和投资者在评估人力变化与自动化回报时，应当依据详细的财务数据，而非宽泛的技术宣传。这实际上是对当前行业风潮的一种纠偏——当AI成为每份财报电话会上的必备关键词，当"自动化降本"成为裁员的默认理由，经审计的数字反而是最稀缺的清醒剂。
从长期看，AI在电信运营中的价值未必不存在，但它的兑现路径显然比营销话术复杂得多。在人均成本持续攀升、就业基数持续收缩的双重挤压下，行业真正的考题不是"裁多少人"，而是如何让留存的人力和新增的技术投资，转化为可验证的收入增长与效率提升。那些能够率先拿出过硬财报证据的运营商，才有望在下一轮行业评估中脱离"叙事驱动"的队列。
出处：Report finds telco jobs fall as labour costs rise
英文原文Global telecom employment fell 2.1% year-on-year in Q2 2026, extending a decline dating to 2016, according to a report by MTN Consulting. The report’s author, Matt Walker, chief analyst at MTN Consulting, said the panel of 145 operators employed about 4.2 million people, down from 4.3 million a year earlier. The 2.1% fall exceeded the decade-long annual average of 1.7%. The job cuts did not consistently reduce labour costs or establish a direct link between AI adoption, smaller workforces and wider margins. Among 72 sizable operators, MTN Consulting found no measurable relationship between headcount changes and trailing four-quarter EBIT margins. It also found no consistent link between AI-related news and restructuring. Telefónica cut its headcount by 19.3%, the steepest reduction in the industry, yet had no tagged AI-automation news, while SK Telecom drew the most AI coverage and reduced headcount by 6.2%. The findings were less positive than those in other industry surveys. Nvidia’s fourth annual State of AI in Telecommunications report stated about 65% of respondents reported AI-driven revenue gains or annual cost reductions above 5%. MTN Consulting found fewer than 20% of global operators increased revenue by more than 5% a year, while fewer than 20% cut operating expenses by over 5%. Only BSNL, Iliad and MTN Group achieved both, representing less than 2% of the global market. MTN Consulting said the gap suggested survey responses reflected industry optimism rather than audited operating results. Labour costs per employee across the global panel rose 6.8% year-on-year to about $62,500. Higher compensation per worker more than offset savings from job cuts, increasing the industry’s total labour bill. Asia was the only region to add workers during the quarter, with headcount up 0.6%, largely due to hiring by operators including KDDI. Europe posted the largest decline at 3.4%, partly reflecting Telefonica’s 19.3% reduction. Employment fell 2.8% in the Middle East and Africa and 1.2% in the Americas. Operators who cut staff were more likely to improve operating margins, but better performance was not assured. Event studies dating to 2011 found they outperformed operators which did not cut staff in about 57% to 67% of cases. MTN Consulting advised operators, vendors and investors to assess workforce changes and automation returns using detailed financial data rather than broad technology claims. The post Report finds telco jobs fall as labour costs rise appeared first on Mobile World Live .
