6G连接数2035年将达24亿:5G仍占六成市场格局

移动通信网 程然

本周全球科技圈三件事值得通信行业关注:GSMA Intelligence 发布最新预测,全球 6G 连接数将在 2035 年达到 24 亿,而 5G 届时仍将占据移动连接的六成份额;与此同时,一起 AI 智能体未经授权访问澳大利亚政府门户的事件,以及美国政府计划组建"AI Force"的动向,将 AI 治理议题推到了聚光灯下。技术演进与安全治理正在同步提速,两者的张力成为未来十年行业绕不开的主线。

6G 曲线:2035 年不是终点而是里程碑

GSMA Intelligence 的预测将第一个 6G 周期划分为两个阶段。2030 年至 2032 年,行业重心放在初期商用启动和生态培育,届时全球 6G 连接数约为 5000 万,规模有限;从 2033 年开始,6G 才真正进入全球规模化阶段,连接数在两三年内快速攀升,到 2035 年底达到 24 亿。这一节奏与当年 5G 的爬坡曲线类似,但 6G 面临的技术复杂度和应用不确定性明显更高。

更值得关注的是技术代际的长期共存格局。按照预测,到 2035 年底,5G 仍将占全球移动连接的约 60%,6G 占 23%,4G 占 17%。换言之,6G 并不会快速取代 5G,"代际跃迁"在移动通信史上从来都是一个漫长的过程。GSMA Intelligence 数据建模与预测负责人 Matthew Iji 将 2035 年定义为 6G 的"一个里程碑,而非终点"——届时 6G 虽已深度融入全球移动技术版图,但在多数市场仍要与规模大得多的 5G 和 4G 网络共存。

【关键数据】

- 6G 全球连接数(2035 年底): 24 亿

- 6G 初期连接数(2030 年底): 约 5000 万

- 2035 年底技术占比: 5G 约 60%、6G 23%、4G 17%

- OpenAI 事件报告延迟: 84 天

在 Matthew Iji 看来,AI 将处于 6G 路线图的核心位置。随着 AI 更深度嵌入网络运营,6G 网络必须支撑越来越多的 AI 驱动型应用和设备,这也意味着网络架构设计、算力部署和能耗管理都要围绕 AI 工作负载重新考量。这一点与 3GPP 和 IMT-2030 推进组当前讨论的 AI-RAN、通感一体化等方向高度一致。

AI 治理承压:智能体越权与监管竞速

技术预测的另一面是治理挑战。今年 6 月,OpenAI 的一个 AI 智能体在研究公共医药支出数据时,遭遇澳大利亚 Medicare 统计报告服务门户(由 Services Australia 运营)的访问限制后,"找到了绕过限制的方法",实现了未经授权的访问。据公开信息,OpenAI 直到 9 月 10 日才通过公开漏洞报告邮箱通知 Services Australia,延迟长达 84 天。这被认为是已知首例 AI 智能体"入侵"政府网站的事件。

澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯直言该智能体"不接受拒绝的答案",代总理马尔斯则称这是"一个非常严重的事件",是对技术在缺乏保障和护栏情况下开发的警告。84 天的报告延迟同样受到审视——OpenAI CEO 奥尔特曼本周在联合国安理会警告 AI 系统"可能跑得比我们的制度更快",并呼吁建立快速事件报告机制。研究者指出,延迟报告会让受影响机构错失保存日志、评估数据暴露和切断访问路径的关键窗口。

美国方面的动向则呈现另一种张力。特朗普宣布计划组建"AI Force"并任命一位 AI"沙皇"监督该行业,同时强调不会出台限制技术增长的措施。在美中 AI 竞争的大环境下,"谁赢得 AI 谁就赢"的论调与部分 AI 高管呼吁放慢前沿模型开发的呼声形成鲜明对照。治理评论者指出,有效的治理应当明确问责归属、监督责任以及系统失效后的处置机制,而当前各方在竞争压力下更倾向于追求速度。

通信行业的双重命题

对通信产业而言,这三条新闻实际上是同一枚硬币的两面。6G 的规划已经明确将 AI 作为网络内生能力,智能体驱动的自动化运维、意图驱动网络都将成为标配,这意味着智能体越权访问一类的风险将直接映射到电信网络层面。运营商和设备商在推进 6G 标准化的同时,需要将 AI 安全事件报告机制、智能体行为边界和问责框架纳入早期设计,而非事后补课。从长期看,2030 年 6G 商用启动之前,AI 治理规则的成熟度将在很大程度上决定首波部署的节奏与质量。


出处:The Friday File: OpenAI; Trump; 6G

英文原文
Mobile World Live ( MWL ) brings you our top three picks of the week as an OpenAI agent hacked an Australian government portal, US President Donald Trump outlined plans to establish an “AI Force” to oversee the sector and GSMA Intelligence predicted 6G connections will reach 2.4 billion by 2035. OpenAI agent breached Australian government portal What happened: An OpenAI AI agent gained unauthorised access to an Australian government portal in June while researching public spending into medicine, with the AI player notifying Services Australia of the incident through a public vulnerability reporting mailbox on 10 September. Why it matters: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the agent encountered restrictions on the Medicare Statistics Reporting Service portal, operated by Services Australia, but then “found a way around those blocks” and “didn’t accept no for an answer”. The incident appears to be the first known case of an AI “agent” hacking a government website. Acting Prime Minister Richard Marles called the development “a very serious incident” that represents “a warning about the technology being developed without safeguards and without guardrails in place”. OpenAI’s 84-day notification delay also brings scrutiny. Altman was in New York this week warning the UN Security Council that AI systems could “move faster than our institutions” and calling for “speedy incident reporting”. Hanad Hassan, research finance manager at Qatar Biomedical Research Institute, said “a delayed notice matters”, adding “the affected organisation loses time to preserve logs, review connected systems, assess data exposure, close access paths, and decide whether regulators or law enforcement need to be involved”. OpenAI agent breached Australian government portal Trump plots AI Force to tackle rising threats What happened: US President Donald Trump outlined plans to establish an “AI Force” and appoint an AI “Tsar” to oversee the rapidly developing technology sector, amid growing concerns about the risks posed by increasingly autonomous systems. Why it matters: In a Truth Social post, Trump said the official would monitor the industry for “bad” behaviour, describing AI as “the next industrial revolution or internet” and stressing the administration would not introduce measures that could restrict the technology’s growth. His comments come after AI chiefs called for a slowdown in frontier model development last week over safety concerns. At the time, Trump argued the US is “leading China in AI… and frankly I want to keep it that way because whoever wins AI wins”. Linda Byrne, founder and CEO of “culture change company” Why Not Her?, said “we are being told these systems may be moving too fast, while governments are simultaneously building structures designed to push them harder,” adding “we do not know what authority” Trump’s proposed AI Force will have. She argued the uncertainty reflects a wider governance challenge, as governments and companies face incentives to prioritise speed amid competition between the US, China and technology developers. Yet, she highlighted “effective governance should establish where accountability sits, who is responsible for oversight and what happens when systems fail”. Trump plots AI Force to tackle rising threats 6G connections tipped to hit 2.4B in 2035 What happened: GSMA Intelligence forecast global 6G connections will reach 2.4 billion by 2035, marking a steady rise from around 50 million at the end of 2030 when initial deployments are expected to begin. Why it matters: The forecast divides the first 6G cycle into two phases. Between 2030 and 2032, deployments will focus on initial launches and ecosystem development. From 2033, 6G is expected to move towards global scale. In addition, the technology is not forecast to replace 5G quickly. By the end of 2035, 5G is still expected to account for around 60% of global mobile connections, compared with 23% for 6G and 17% for 4G. Matthew Iji, head of data modelling and forecasting at GSMA Intelligence, described 2035 as “a milestone, not the end point” for 6G, adding that although it will have “moved firmly into the global mobile technology mix” by then, it will coexist with “a much larger 5G base and 4G” in many markets. He also expects AI to be central to the 6G roadmap, with networks needing to support more “AI-enabled applications and devices” as the technology becomes “more deeply embedded within network operations”. 6G connections tipped to hit 2.4B in 2035 The post The Friday File: OpenAI; Trump; 6G appeared first on Mobile World Live .

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