移动通信网 程然
美国电信业的裁员潮正在从新闻变成例行公事。根据本周公布的财报数据,Verizon 第三季度员工数从 6 月底的 97,600 人降至 93,300 人,而竞争对手 AT&T 同期也削减了 3,700 个岗位。两家运营商单季合计裁员约 8,000 人,接近员工总数的 4%。更值得关注的是,两家公司目前合计约 220,500 名员工,已经少于 AT&T 一家在 2020 年时的规模——六年多时间里,两家公司累计减员超过 14 万人,而这场持续的大瘦身与外界热炒的 AI 关系远没有想象中那么大。
AI 叙事下的裁员常态
Verizon CEO Dan Schulman 在三季度财报电话会上描绘了一幅宏大的 AI 图景:"未来几年,全球人口大约 85 亿,但智能体(Agent)数量可能至少达到 1,000 亿。"他将智能体 AI 视为拉动客户支出、提振营收的机会,并预测智能体将引发"数据流量爆炸",届时 Verizon 网络将成为稀缺且宝贵的资产,"我们会据此定价,你们会看到不同的定价方案。"
不过,Schulman 的预言记录并不令人信服。今年 4 月他曾对媒体表示,AI 可能在未来 2 到 5 年内将美国失业率推高至 30%。然而美国劳工统计局的数据显示,4 月至 9 月期间,美国失业率始终维持在 4.2%,纹丝不动。与此形成对照的是,麦肯锡三年前预言网络 API 将为运营商带来最高 3,000 亿美元的额外收入,如今看来同样遥遥无期。目前几乎没有证据表明 AI 正在大幅提升生产力或直接导致大规模裁员,但 Verizon 每年仍在成千上万地削减岗位。
【关键数据】
- 单季合计裁员: 约 8,000 人(占两家总员工数近 4%)
- 两家合计员工数: 约 220,500 人,低于 AT&T 2020 年单家水平
- Verizon 人均创收: 从 2020 年约 97 万美元升至 2025 年超 153 万美元(增幅约 58%)
- Verizon 单季运营支出: 约 257 亿美元,高于五年前的 240 亿美元
- AT&T 员工规模: 自 2020 年以来累计缩减 45%
裁员省下的钱去哪了
连续多个季度的裁员已经"正常化"到几乎无人过问的程度。没有分析师追问:Verizon 如何在 2020 到 2025 年间实现年营收增长近 100 亿美元的同时,裁掉了约三分之一的员工?人均创收数据看似亮眼——Verizon 从 2020 年的约 97 万美元飙升到 2025 年的 153 万美元以上。但对投资者而言,如果 AI 真能让企业以更少的人力维持甚至提升营收,利润理应水涨船高。
现实却给了这种乐观叙事一记闷棍。事实上,AT&T 和 Verizon 的大规模裁员早在 ChatGPT 问世(2022 年 11 月 30 日)之前就已展开,最深幅度的削减恰恰发生在 AI 成为日常话题之前。财务数据同样不支持"AI 带来效率飞跃"的说法:Verizon 最近一个季度总运营支出约 257 亿美元,五年前同期为 240 亿美元;AT&T 同期均为 282 亿美元。同期 Verizon 员工数减少 17%,AT&T 缩减 28%——人力少了,成本没降。
原因不难理解。节省下来的人力开支被工资通胀、遣散费和工作外包成本不断侵蚀。一个常被忽略的事实是,人力成本在美国大型运营商总成本中占比相对较小,可能仅五分之一左右。裁员的真实驱动力来自更传统的因素:常规效率措施、砍掉中层管理冗余、更多依赖外部承包商、退出电视等非核心业务、并购后去重、客户转向线上导致门店关闭,以及各种常规自动化手段。
2032 年的悬念:减员能否持续
对在职员工而言,更令人不安的问题是:如果不需要 AI 也能裁掉这么多人,那么快速进步的 AI 会不会推动下一轮更激进的缩减?电信业务的软件环节看起来尤其脆弱——今年智能体编写代码乃至解决算法问题的能力已经显著提升。但让"智能体史密斯"彻底取代人类程序员既困难又危险。困难在于,运营商 IT 负责人仍将 GitHub Copilot 之类的工具视为提升现有程序员产出的辅助手段,而非一对一的替代品。危险在于,将专业能力和决策权拱手让给 AI,可能让组织依赖昂贵且不可靠、鲜有人真正理解的技术,一旦不再培养相应人才,技能或将永久流失。
AT&T 和 Verizon 能否维持当前裁员速度,将成为一个重要观察指标。2020 年时几乎没人预料到 AT&T 会在六年里裁员 45%;若趋势延续,到 2032 年 6G 商用铺开之际,AT&T 员工数将只剩约 7 万人。市场对 AI 叙事的耐心也在消耗:Verizon 发布财报当天股价下跌 3%,六个月累计跌幅达 9%,Starlink 的竞争压力加剧了投资者担忧。从行业视角看,电信分析师对 AI 提升生产力的说法已经心存疑虑,而对 AI 拉动营收的故事,则显得更加不买账。
出处:AT&T and Verizon normalize layoffs as 8,000 jobs go in a quarter
英文原文AI & Machine Learning
Business Transformation
Network Automation
Operations
Commentary
AT&T and Verizon normalize layoffs as 8,000 jobs go in a quarter
Together, AT&T and Verizon now employ fewer people than AT&T alone did in 2020, but cuts so far seem to have had little to do with AI.
Iain Morris
,
International Editor
,
Light Reading
October 30, 2026
6 Min Read
Verizon CEO Dan Schulman has continued to slash jobs at the company since taking charge in October last year.
(Source: Jordi Boixareu)
Dan Schulman sounds like he has been rewatching that scene from
The Matrix Reloaded
in which Neo fights off a multiplying swarm of Agent Smiths. "I think as I look out over the next couple of years, there'll be something like 8.5 billion people in the world, but I think there could be at least 100 billion agents," the CEO of Verizon told analysts on his call about
third-quarter results
.
These won't, of course, be the sinister agents of the Keanu Reeves movie with their sneering resolve to exterminate anyone unplugged from the machine. "We'll be sure that we won't allow agents to access our platforms unless we're 100% certain that it's truly a customer and not a rogue agent," continued Schulman, portraying agentic AI as an opportunity for Verizon to boost customer spending and grow sales.
His view that people will be vastly outnumbered by supposedly autonomous software programs – believed to be "super intelligent" by the US president – might trouble anyone who has tracked
Schulman's predictions
since he became boss of the American telco about a year ago.
Speaking to The Wall Street Journal in April
, he reckoned AI could lift the unemployment rate to 30% in the next two to five years. If he is right, it should already be creeping up – perhaps even surging.
Related:
AT&T and Verizon cut thousands more jobs as AI backlash grows
So far, however, Schulman's AIpocalypse forecast looks as accurate as
McKinsey's prediction
about network APIs. Almost three years ago, the consulting firm prophesied that telcos would generate up to $300 billion in additional sales over the subsequent five to seven years as those APIs spurred usage. Without an unprecedented spike in the next two years and four months, it will go down as one of the worst examples of soothsaying since Winston Churchill predicted the Gallipoli campaign would be a cakewalk.
Despite what Schulman thinks, the US rate of unemployment did not budge between April and September, when it was 4.2%, according to
the US Bureau of Labor Statistics
. There is also scant evidence that AI is either boosting productivity or responsible for mass layoffs. Yet Verizon continues to cut thousands of jobs every year.
Storming the Bastille
Verizon finished 2025 with 9,700 fewer employees than it had a year earlier after Schulman
announced plans
for 13,000 job cuts on his arrival at headquarters. Staff numbers were then fattened by the acquisition of Frontier Communications, a broadband operator, at the start of 2026. With its previous headcount of about 13,000 people, Frontier would have given Verizon a total of about 112,600 employees at the end of 2024. Yet by June this year, Verizon employed only 97,600 people. Three months later, the figure had dropped to 93,300, according to accounts published this week.
Related:
AI is making waves of telco job cuts look irreversible
Verizon's update followed the revelation a day earlier that rival AT&T had similarly cut another 3,700 jobs over the same three-month period. It means the two big US telcos combined have slashed another 8,000 jobs, nearly 4% of the total, in a single quarter. Together, they employed roughly 220,500 people in September, fewer than AT&T alone had in 2020. Headcount across the two companies has fallen by 142,460 since then.
(Source: Companies, Light Reading)
Successive quarters of layoffs have now become so normalized that they are barely acknowledged. No analyst thinks to ask how Verizon could have grown annual sales by almost $10 billion between 2020 and 2025 while offloading about a third of its workforce during this period. In 2020, Verizon generated about $970,500 in revenues per employee. Last year, that figure had soared to more than $1.53 million.
Investors, if not employees, might be delighted to hear this epic downsizing is all the consequence of AI and the efficiency it has promised. Layoffs used to be taken as a sign that a company was in trouble. But if AI allows companies to operate with a fraction of the workforce they previously needed, while generating the same or higher revenues, profits should rise and shareholders should benefit.
Related:
Verizon confirms it will lay off more than 13K employees
Unfortunately, there are numerous problems with this assessment. For starters, both AT&T and Verizon were cutting headcount long before anyone had heard of Sam Altman and AI had become an everyday news story. Indeed, the deepest cuts happened prior to the revolutionary date of November 30, 2022, when ChatGPT was released to the public – AI's storming-of-the-Bastille moment.
Nor are the telcos dramatically more profitable with much lower costs than they were several years ago. Verizon booked total operating expenses of about $25.7 billion for the recent third quarter, up slightly from $24 billion for the same period five years ago. AT&T's equivalent figure was $28.2 billion for each of those quarters. Over this period, Verizon cut 17% of its workforce while AT&T's shrank by 28%.
Of course, the operators would probably have been worse off financially had they not made such hefty cuts. The problem is that any savings have been eroded by wage inflation, severance packages and the costs of outsourcing work. What's often forgotten, too, is that labor expenses account for a relatively small fraction of any large operator's total costs – perhaps only a fifth of the amount among US telcos.
Difficult and dangerous
The real blame for job cuts probably lies with the usual suspects: standard efficiency measures, the elimination of layers of middle-management fat, heavier reliance on external contractors, the retreat from non-core businesses like TV, the removal of duplicate roles after mergers, the closure of stores as customers shop online, and more humdrum forms of automation.
None of this offers much consolation for affected employees – or even remaining staff. If operators didn't need AI to cut so many jobs, could the rapidly advancing technology help them shrink even more drastically in the next few years? The software side of the telco business has looked especially vulnerable to an AI takeover. Agents' ability to write code in response to a few basic prompts, and even to solve algorithmic problems, has scarily improved this year.
Letting Agent Smith eradicate the human programmers, nevertheless, would be difficult and dangerous. Difficult because IT bosses within telcos still regard software-writing tools like GitHub Copilot as a virtual assistant for speeding up the output of a given human coder, rather than a like-for-like replacement. Dangerous because relinquishing expertise and decision-making to AI could leave organizations reliant on expensive, fallible technologies that few people really comprehend. If humans are no longer trained to do those jobs, skills might be lost forever.
Whether AT&T and Verizon can sustain job cuts at the current rate will be instructive. In 2020, few would have expected AT&T to cut its headcount by 45% in the next six years. Were the trend to continue, it would enter 2032 amid the rollout of 6G with around 70,000 employees.
By then, if Schulman is right, agents will have led to "an explosion in data traffic," making the Verizon network "a scarce and valuable asset," he told analysts. "And we will price it as such. You'll see different pricing plans." Verizon's share price fell 3% on the day it published results and is down 9% in the last six months amid
concerns about Starlink
. Telecom analysts voice skepticism about the AI productivity story. But they sound even less convinced by the sales one.
Read more about:
Headcount
About the Author
Iain Morris
International Editor, Light Reading
Iain Morris joined Light Reading as News Editor at the start of 2015 -- and we mean, right at the start. His friends and family were still singing Auld Lang Syne as Iain started sourcing New Year's Eve UK mobile network congestion statistics. Prior to boosting Light Reading's UK-based editorial team numbers (he is based in London, south of the river), Iain was a successful freelance writer and editor who had been covering the telecoms sector for the past 15 years. His work has appeared in publications including The Economist (classy!) and The Observer, besides a variety of trade and business journals. He was previously the lead telecoms analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit, and before that worked as a features editor at Telecommunications magazine. Iain started out in telecoms as an editor at consulting and market-research company Analysys (now Analysys Mason).
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